无人物流车：L4级自动驾驶率先落地场景

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The unmanned logistics vehicle industry is at a technological maturity and commercialization turning point, with significant growth momentum expected in early 2024 [1][2] - The urban distribution logistics sector is the pioneer for L4 level autonomous driving commercialization, with 85% of routes being fixed, making it easier to implement L4 autonomous driving [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - The 5 cubic meter unmanned logistics vehicle has an empty mileage of 150 kilometers, meeting demand, and costs have significantly decreased due to the reduction in passenger vehicle autonomous driving kit prices [1][5] - The application of L4 autonomous driving in urban distribution logistics shows remarkable results, with a vehicle-to-driver ratio of 1:100 and a substantial decrease in insurance costs (from 2000 yuan/year to 400 yuan/year), indicating technological feasibility and application value [1][7] - Unmanned logistics vehicles achieve significant cost reductions by lowering driver salaries and delivery costs, with New Stone achieving approximately 59% cost reduction at a logistics point in Wuxi [1][8] - The Z5 model from 90 has a bare vehicle price of about 50,000 yuan, making it more market-acceptable compared to traditional electric vans priced around 60,000 yuan [1][8] Policy and Regulatory Environment - Government policies are actively promoting the development of unmanned logistics vehicles, with the central government reducing logistics costs and local governments opening road rights [1][9] - As of 2024, New Stone and 90 have obtained road rights in over 200 cities, and the State Post Bureau has proposed deepening the application of AI technologies [1][10] Market Potential - The market for replacing urban distribution vehicles in China is substantial, with an estimated annual replacement demand of 2 to 3 million vehicles, leading to a market space of approximately 1,000 to 1,500 billion yuan [1][11] - If all urban distribution vehicles were replaced with unmanned vehicles, the market space could reach 5,000 to 6,000 billion yuan annually, considering the potential for FSD subscription fees [1][11] Company Developments - Major express companies and manufacturers are actively advancing unmanned driving technology, with significant deployment plans from companies like Postal Service, SF Express, and Zhongtong [1][12][13] - Companies like Jizhi Home and Xidi Zhijia are preparing for IPOs, indicating strong market interest and potential for growth in the unmanned logistics sector [1][6][14] Future Trends - The development of robotaxi and Robo truck technologies is expected to see significant advancements, with companies like Xiaoma Zhixing and Wen Yuan Zhixing planning to go public in the second half of 2025 [1][16][18] - Regulatory policies are gradually loosening, which is anticipated to facilitate the commercialization of Robo TAXI and Robo Truck in the next one to two years [1][17]