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2025-07-09 02:40

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the optical module and related industries, particularly focusing on the demand for optical modules, PCBs, and other network-side products driven by significant growth in TOKEN users and Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) [1][2][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - Growth in AI Monetization: From April to June, TOKEN usage increased four to five times compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a substantial rise in inference computing demand, which benefits the related supply chain [1][5]. - Impact of Tariffs: Current optical module products are not affected by U.S. tariffs, but potential 232 industry taxes could be a concern. A 25% tax increase would have limited impact on customers due to existing tariffs [4][12]. - Market Performance: North American cloud service providers reported better-than-expected revenue, and major model companies are seeing significant growth in TOKEN users and ARR, which is driving demand for optical modules and PCBs [2][5]. - Future Demand Projections: By 2025, demand for computing power will increasingly be driven by inference rather than training, with ASICs expected to account for a larger share of the market, significantly increasing the value of optical modules and PCBs compared to GPUs [1][6][8]. - AI Revenue Growth: AI-related revenues are projected to reach hundreds of billions to a trillion dollars by the end of the year, with companies like OpenAI and Anthropic showing rapid ARR growth [1][6][7]. Additional Important Points - Market Valuation: Current market valuations for leading companies are relatively low, not fully reflecting the growth potential of optical modules and PCBs. A PE ratio of at least 20 is suggested for these sectors [3][12][15]. - Technological Developments: The introduction of new technologies, such as the 1.6T optical module, is expected to accelerate growth in the industry, with significant releases anticipated in the coming quarters [5][14]. - Cost Efficiency: ASICs have a lower cost per Flops compared to GPUs, with a cost efficiency ratio of 2-3 times better, leading to a wide range of cost fluctuations [9][10]. - Long-term Growth Predictions: By 2026, the growth rate for optical modules and PCBs is expected to reach 20-30%, driven by the increasing share of ASICs in the market [10][11]. Conclusion - The optical module and PCB industries are poised for significant growth driven by advancements in AI, increased demand for inference computing, and favorable market conditions. The current market undervaluation presents potential investment opportunities, with a strong outlook for the coming years.