掘金存量，另辟成长——建材行业2025年度中期投资策略

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Building Materials - The real estate industry is expected to face pressure over the next two years, with new construction and completions projected to decline by 10%-20%, leading to a 15% drop in construction demand for building materials [1][3] - Despite the downturn, the demand for renovation of existing residential properties is anticipated to rise, with renovation accounting for 50% of the market by 2025 and potentially reaching 70% by 2030 or 2035 [1][4] - The renovation market is shifting from a manufacturing logic to a consumer goods logic, driven by aging housing stock and experiences from overseas markets, with renovation demand expected to be 2-3 times the current level over the next five years [1][5] Investment Strategy - Stock selection should focus on market volume and structure, favoring categories such as coatings, hardware, and gypsum board [1][6] - Attention should be given to categories with significant supply exits and a high proportion of engineering business, such as waterproofing, coatings, hardware, and tiles, where leading companies are likely to expand economies of scale [1][6] - The overall building materials industry is projected to shrink by approximately 30% in 2024, but some companies are expected to achieve revenue growth through increased market share, particularly in coatings and hardware [1][7] Company Performance: SanKe Tree - SanKe Tree is recognized as a leading player in the renovation market, with new business segments generating revenue of 1.4 billion yuan in 2024, expected to grow by 50% to 2.2 billion yuan in 2025, accounting for 17% of total revenue and contributing nearly 40% to profits [1][8] - The company's replicable store model aligns with the trends of the renovation era, indicating strong future growth potential [1][8] Market Dynamics: Cement and Glass - The cement and glass industries are not expected to see significant reversals in the next six months, with cement often experiencing price drops for coordination, presenting potential short-term opportunities [1][9] - The fiberglass market is expected to see balanced demand, while carbon fiber supply is anticipated to exceed demand, limiting reversal opportunities in the near term [1][9] African Market Insights - Africa is identified as a key market for the export of building materials, with rapid population growth and urbanization leading to high investment returns [1][10][11] - Keda Manufacturing holds a 12% market share in Africa, leveraging channel and brand barriers to achieve significant market presence, with considerable growth potential as per capita consumption remains low compared to China [1][12] Future Trends in Specialty Fibers - The specialty fiber market is projected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50% over the next three years, driven by demand from major tech companies [1][16] - The market is expected to see significant price increases as new materials become mainstream by 2027, with companies like Zhongcai Technology poised for substantial profit growth due to high-end product orders [1][17]