创新长坡厚雪，医药新章甫开——医药行业2025年度中期投资策略

Summary of the Pharmaceutical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the pharmaceutical industry in China, specifically the performance and outlook of listed pharmaceutical companies in 2025 [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the overall revenue of domestic listed pharmaceutical companies decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders down by 8.7% and non-recurring net profit down by 10% [3][4]. - Despite the revenue and profit pressures, the industry shows signs of marginal improvement, indicating a potential recovery phase for profitability [4]. Sector Performance - The CXO (Contract Research Organization), medical services, pharmaceutical distribution, and retail sectors outperformed the industry average in revenue growth, with CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) revenue increasing by 13% year-on-year [1][5]. - The CXO sector also saw a notable increase in non-recurring net profit, up by 23% year-on-year, highlighting its strong performance [5]. Valuation Trends - The valuation premium of the pharmaceutical industry has been recovering since early 2025, reaching nearly 45% by June, which is considered to be at a historical mid-low level [7][8]. - Public funds have shown a renewed interest in the sector, suggesting a potential new allocation cycle [7][8]. Innovation and Global Expansion - The "innovation going global" trend is supported by policy backing, industry changes, and performance improvements. The number of Chinese innovative companies participating in overseas academic conferences has increased significantly [9]. - Key players like BeiGene and Hutchison China MediTech have improved cash flow and entered profitability cycles, further driving the trend of innovation going global [9]. Investment Strategies - The mid-term investment strategy for the pharmaceutical industry focuses on two main lines: innovation going global and domestic demand recovery. Key areas of interest include innovative drugs and their upstream supply chains, particularly in the CXO sector [2]. - Attention is also drawn to domestic sectors with lower tariff exposure and the gradual rollout of hospital equipment upgrades, particularly in electrophysiology and orthopedics [2]. Opportunities in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) - The TCM sector is highlighted for its innovative drug opportunities and brand OTC (over-the-counter) products. The decline in raw material prices is expected to alleviate inventory pressures and improve gross margins [14]. - Companies like Yiling Pharmaceutical are advancing multiple pipelines into clinical stages, which could support long-term growth [14]. Medical Device Market Insights - The medical device market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected investment increase of over 25% by 2027 compared to four years prior, driven by ongoing equipment upgrades and hospital recovery [18]. - High-value consumables are particularly recommended for investment due to their growth potential [17]. Home Healthcare Market - The home healthcare device market is gaining attention due to an aging population and increasing health awareness. Key products include blood glucose meters and respiratory devices, with significant growth expected in the coming years [19]. New Consumption Trends in Healthcare - The healthcare new consumption sector is advised to focus on retail market transformations, such as the evolution of pharmacy chains, which may improve long-term revenue expectations [20]. Additional Important Insights - The pharmaceutical industry has faced a challenging environment since mid-2020, but recent trends indicate a potential recovery phase [7]. - The funding landscape for innovative drug development has improved, reducing the likelihood of cash flow constraints in the near future [10]. - The "borrowing ship" model for overseas expansion allows Chinese companies to leverage foreign patents and rights, providing stable cash flow through upfront payments and milestone rewards [13].