BERNSTEIN：全球半导体_2025 年 5 月世界半导体贸易统计跟踪 - 销售额环比增长 9.5%，略好于常规（环比 + 8.2%），同比增长 18.5%

Summary of Semiconductor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global semiconductor industry, focusing on sales trends, product performance, and market dynamics as of May 2025 [1][2][26]. Key Points Sales Performance - Total semiconductor sales increased by 18.2% YoY in May, following a 22.8% increase in April [2][26]. - Month-over-month (MoM) sales rose by 9.5%, slightly above the historical average of 8.2% for May [3][33]. - Memory sales grew by 17.5% YoY, while non-memory sales increased by 18.5% YoY [2][26]. Product Group Performance - MPU sales increased by 6.0% MoM (typical: 4.5%), DRAM by 48.4% MoM (typical: 42.4%), and NAND by 37.4% MoM (typical: 22.6%) [4][38]. - Other product groups underperformed compared to typical patterns, including: - Discretes: 1.1% (typical: 2.8%) - Optoelectronics: -21.6% (typical: -2.6%) - Sensors & Actuators: -0.5% (typical: 3.3%) [4][38]. Geographic Sales Trends - YoY sales increased in all regions except Japan, which saw a 5.4% decline [41]. - MoM sales growth was observed in all regions except Japan, with notable increases of 14.0% in the Americas and 9.0% in China [41][42]. Unit Shipments and ASPs - Total unit shipments were relatively flat, down 0.2% MoM, while average selling prices (ASPs) rose by 9.8% MoM [48][51]. - ASPs increased for several product groups, including: - Memory: 12.2% - Analog App Specific: 6.3% - Logic: 3.9% [53][54]. Future Outlook - The data from April and May suggests a potential rebound in bit shipments for DRAM and NAND in 2QCY25, with predictions of 8.2% QoQ growth for DRAM and 16% QoQ growth for NAND [55][56]. - ASP growth for DRAM is expected to improve, while NAND ASPs may decline further [55][57]. Investment Implications - ADI: Market-Perform, target price $220.00, with valuations needing to catch up to earnings growth [10]. - AMD: Market-Perform, target price $95.00, facing high AI expectations but weak core business segments [10]. - AVGO: Outperform, target price $295.00, with strong AI trajectory and margins [10]. - INTC: Market-Perform, target price $21.00, facing significant operational challenges [11]. - NVDA: Outperform, target price $185.00, with substantial datacenter growth potential [12]. - QCOM: Outperform, target price $185.00, with a strong product portfolio despite headwinds [13]. Additional Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a mixed recovery, with certain segments showing strong growth while others lag behind typical seasonal patterns [3][4][38]. - The overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued growth driven by demand in various sectors, particularly in AI and data centers [10][12].