产业链价格逐步进入正反馈，重视光伏反内卷投资机会

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the photovoltaic (PV) industry, specifically discussing the current state and future expectations of the solar supply chain [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - Price Recovery: The PV supply chain has seen significant price fluctuations, with polysilicon prices recovering from a low of around 30,000 yuan to over 45,000 yuan, indicating a strong investment opportunity [2][3]. - Material Price Increases: There has been a notable increase in raw material prices, with silicon material prices rising to nearly 40,000 yuan and silicon wafer prices increasing by over 10% [1][3]. - Inventory Dynamics: The upstream silicon material inventory is relatively high, while silicon wafer inventory is low, suggesting a potential supply-demand imbalance [3][11]. - Government Intervention: The central government is expected to implement specific anti-involution policies by the end of Q3, focusing on price limits, production caps, and storage measures [1][5][6]. - Industry Self-Regulation: Leading silicon material companies plan to collaborate on storage initiatives to stabilize prices, reflecting a commitment to self-regulation within the industry [5][8]. Additional Important Content - Market Sentiment: The current market sentiment is cautious but optimistic, with expectations that the anti-involution policies will differ significantly from previous years due to stronger government backing [2][6][9]. - Investment Recommendations: Investors are advised to closely monitor price changes in raw materials and consider allocating investments to leading companies across the supply chain, as there is substantial room for stock price recovery compared to last year's highs [7][12]. - Demand Outlook: Despite a potential decline in demand in June, the overall impact on company performance is not expected to be severe, especially for leading companies with high overseas revenue [10][11]. - Production and Capacity: Current silicon material inventory is estimated at 270,000 to 300,000 tons, with production figures for polysilicon and silicon wafers showing fluctuations but generally indicating a stable supply chain [11]. Conclusion - The photovoltaic industry is at a critical juncture with potential for recovery driven by government policies and market dynamics. Investors are encouraged to focus on leading companies and monitor raw material prices closely to capitalize on emerging opportunities.