大摩闭门会-供给侧改革反内卷，是新瓶装旧酒吗？- 纪要

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese economy and the supply-side reform initiatives, particularly focusing on the steel, cement, and photovoltaic glass industries. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Economy: Despite the U.S. imposing tariffs on multiple countries, the market's reaction has been muted. However, the long-term effects on U.S. corporate profits and inflation are expected to be significant post-Q3 2023, necessitating vigilance from companies regarding potential risks [1][3][21]. 2. Differences in Supply-Side Reform 2.0: The current supply-side reform differs from the 2015-2018 reforms in its broader scope, complexity due to international factors, and emphasis on institutional adjustments for long-term stability [1][4][5][17]. 3. Economic Performance in H1 2025: China's economy showed resilience with a GDP growth exceeding 5%, driven by export activities and policy support. However, challenges are anticipated in H2 2025 due to supply-demand imbalances and deepening deflation [1][8][9]. 4. Sector-Specific Production Cuts: The steel industry plans to cut production by approximately 30 million tons, while the cement industry has a reduction plan set to begin in November 2024. The coal industry is unlikely to be involved in this round of reforms due to electricity safety concerns [1][10][11][12]. 5. Challenges in the Photovoltaic Industry: The photovoltaic glass sector is currently facing losses, with leading companies beginning to reduce production. The industry struggles with low concentration and weak demand, making comprehensive supply-side reform a lengthy process [1][13][30][31]. 6. External Demand Pressures: China faces external demand pressures from high tariffs, potential declines in exports to the U.S., and a global trade cycle downturn, which could impact economic growth and inflation [1][18][19]. 7. Stock Market Outlook: The Chinese stock market has entered a volatile phase since June, with recommendations to focus on A-shares while maintaining caution towards Hong Kong stocks. The long-term impact of supply-side reforms is expected to be positive for the overall stock market [2][20][25][27][28]. 8. Future Economic Predictions: The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 and 2026 suggests a potential deflationary environment, but successful supply-side reforms could lead to upward risks in economic growth [1][29]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Institutional Adjustments Needed: The current reform emphasizes the need for institutional changes, including local government fiscal systems and social security frameworks, to achieve sustainable development [1][5][36]. 2. Market Reaction to Policy Changes: The market's response to new tariff policies has been characterized by investor fatigue, indicating a desire for clarity and stability in trade relations [1][22]. 3. Long-Term Investment Strategies: The call suggests a cautious approach to investments in the short term, with a focus on individual A-share opportunities, while the overall market is expected to improve in terms of investment returns over the next 6 to 12 months [1][24][28].