运动鞋服行业研究：定量推演“对等关税”对鞋服OEM行业及品牌商影响

Summary of Conference Call on Tariff Impact on OEM Industry and Brand Owners Industry Overview - The discussion focuses on the impact of increased tariffs on the OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) industry and brand owners in the footwear and apparel sector [1] - Key regions mentioned include Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, which face tariffs ranging from over 30% to more than 40% [2] Core Insights and Arguments - Tariff Implications: The imposition of tariffs means that various stakeholders, including manufacturers, brand owners, and consumers, will share the burden of increased costs. Initially, brands will absorb the tariffs, but over time, costs will be passed on to consumers through price increases and reduced discounts [4][10] - Profit Margin Impact: The average profit margin for footwear and apparel manufacturers is around 10%. The tariff differences among Southeast Asian countries create significant implications for these manufacturers, especially given China's tariffs reaching 145% [2] - U.S. Import Dependency: The U.S. remains the largest export market for China, with a declining dependency on Chinese textile and apparel imports from 37% in 2017 to 26% in 2023. However, China still leads in textile and apparel imports to the U.S. [3] - Cost Sharing Dynamics: In the short term, brands may absorb tariff costs, but mid-term strategies will involve sharing costs among supply chains, brands, and consumers. Long-term, consumers are expected to bear the majority of the additional costs [4][10] - Brand Pricing Strategies: Brands with higher pricing power, such as luxury and premium brands, can cover tariff costs with smaller price increases (around 3% to 5%), while lower-tier brands may face more significant impacts on their profit margins [11] Additional Important Points - Geopolitical and Logistical Considerations: The OEM industry must consider geopolitical stability, logistics, and cultural factors when deciding on production locations. The transition to new production sites is complex and requires careful planning [6] - Supplier Relationships: The ability of OEMs to negotiate with brands and their position within the supply chain are critical for managing tariff impacts. Brands may seek to negotiate cost-sharing arrangements based on the value chain contributions of OEMs [13] - Market Dynamics: The OEM sector is expected to see a consolidation of market share among leading suppliers, as smaller players may struggle to adapt to the increased cost pressures and operational challenges [16] - Future Outlook: The expectation is that the burden of tariffs will not be a long-term issue for OEMs, as they will eventually pass costs to consumers. The focus will remain on maintaining competitive pricing and managing inventory effectively [15] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the implications of tariffs on the OEM industry and brand owners, highlighting the dynamics of cost-sharing, market dependency, and strategic responses to tariff pressures.