美元稳定币未必稳定

Summary of Conference Call on Stablecoins Industry Overview - The conference focused on the stablecoin industry, highlighting recent regulatory developments in China, Hong Kong, and the United States, indicating that stablecoins are gradually being integrated into regulatory frameworks [2][18]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Regulatory Developments: On May 19 and May 22, the U.S. and Hong Kong passed stablecoin legislation, officially recognizing stablecoins as regulated assets [2]. 2. Market Dynamics: As of May 29, 2025, the total market capitalization of Tether (USDT) reached $152.8 billion, with the price remaining stable around $1 [3]. 3. Market Share: USDT and USD Coin (USDC) together account for 86% of the total market capitalization of dollar-pegged stablecoins [3]. 4. Global Currency Usage: Despite the dominance of dollar-pegged stablecoins, the actual use of the U.S. dollar in global fiat payment systems is only around 40% [4]. 5. Regulatory Differences: The U.S. employs a registration system for stablecoin issuers, while Hong Kong's regulations are less specific regarding asset backing [5]. 6. Types of Stablecoins: Stablecoins can be categorized into three types: centralized (e.g., USDT, USDC), decentralized, and algorithmic stablecoins [6]. 7. Historical Case Study: The collapse of the LUNA stablecoin in 2022 serves as a cautionary tale about liquidity crises in algorithmic stablecoins [7][8]. 8. Investment Benefits: Holding USDT and USDC offers advantages such as 24/7 blockchain payments and access to various financial products within the crypto ecosystem [9][10]. 9. Market Correlation: There is a significant correlation between the market capitalizations of Bitcoin and dollar-pegged stablecoins, suggesting that a bullish crypto market could drive demand for USDT and USDC [10]. 10. Regulatory Support in the U.S.: The U.S. regulatory environment is relatively supportive of cryptocurrency, with many lawmakers expressing favorable views towards the industry [11]. 11. Future of Stablecoins: The stability of USDT and USDC is closely tied to the credibility of the U.S. dollar, which may face challenges due to geopolitical factors and economic policies [14][19]. 12. RMB Internationalization: The rise of China's manufacturing sector suggests potential for the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB), which could lead to increased demand for RMB-pegged stablecoins [17][18]. Other Important Insights - The historical context of currency dominance indicates that no currency has maintained its status indefinitely, suggesting that the future of stablecoins may involve diversification beyond dollar-pegged assets [16]. - The potential for RMB internationalization is supported by China's significant share of global manufacturing value added, which currently stands at 28.8% [17]. - The development of digital RMB and its backing by China's international credibility could enhance its role in the stablecoin market [18]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the stablecoin industry, regulatory landscape, market dynamics, and future prospects.