2025-07-16 06:13Summary of the Conference Call on the Infant Formula Industry Industry Overview - The report focuses on the infant formula food industry in China, particularly following the implementation of the new national standards for infant formula in February 2023, which provides a regulatory framework for formula registration [1][3] - The new standards emphasize nutritional requirements, product safety, and production process regulations, prompting companies to reapply for formula registration to comply with these standards [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - The report includes sections on industry overview, supply chain analysis, competitive landscape, and company profiles [2] - A comparison between the new national standards and EU standards highlights differences in mandatory vitamins and minerals, indicating varying safety and quality requirements across regions [3] - The market demand for infant formula is declining due to a decrease in birth rates, with the birth rate dropping from 1.0% in 2019 to 0.64% in 2023, resulting in a reduction of newborns from 14.67 million to 9.02 million [4][6] - The market size for the infant formula industry decreased from 197.29 billion yuan in 2019 to 176.08 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected decline to 112.86 billion yuan by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -2.8% and -8.5% respectively [6] Market Dynamics - The demand for infant formula is expected to drop below 350,000 tons due to the shrinking population of infants, which will negatively impact market growth [7] - The pricing structure of infant formula is categorized into three segments: - Ordinary formula (below 300 yuan) - High-end formula (300-400 yuan) - Super high-end formula (above 400 yuan) - High-end and super high-end products account for 50.5% of the overall market despite only holding 35% of the market share [7] Supply Chain Analysis - The supply chain consists of upstream raw material suppliers, midstream manufacturers, and downstream sales channels, including both online and offline platforms [8] - The number of dairy cows in China is increasing slowly, impacting the supply of milk, which is a primary ingredient in infant formula [9] Competitive Landscape - The competition between foreign and domestic brands is intensifying, with foreign brands like Mead Johnson and Wyeth holding over 75% of the market share, especially in first-tier cities [12] - Domestic brands are increasing their investment in research and quality control to improve their product offerings and adapt to market demands [13] - The new national standards require different stages of formula to have independent standards, affecting the formulation of proteins, fats, and carbohydrates [13] Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a significant shift as nearly one-third of brands may exit the market, solidifying the dominance of leading domestic brands [14] - The concentration of production facilities is skewed towards northern regions, with 119 domestic factories registered compared to 35 foreign factories [14] - Leading companies like Feihe, Junlebao, and Yili are expanding their production capabilities and product lines to capture market share [15] Conclusion - The infant formula industry in China is facing challenges due to declining birth rates and increasing competition, but there is potential for growth in high-end product segments as consumer preferences shift towards quality and safety [11][16]