“反内卷”的行情节奏与受益方向：基于“供改”复盘和财报数据的启示

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy and its implications on various industries, particularly focusing on high-end manufacturing, photovoltaic, lithium battery, and automotive sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. Differences Between Anti-Involution and Supply-Side Reform Anti-involution stems from homogenization in local investment attraction, while supply-side reform is a consequence of the 4 trillion investment aftermath. The former focuses on mid-to-downstream high-end manufacturing, whereas the latter is concentrated in upstream heavy industries [3][6][10]. 2. Importance of Demand-Side Support Successful implementation of anti-involution requires demand-side support. Current external demand is limited, and the real estate cycle is at the bottom, leading to insufficient demand pull. Merely reducing capacity will not sustain price increases without effective demand-side policies [5][9]. 3. Beneficial Industries Industries likely to benefit from the anti-involution policy include photovoltaic, lithium battery, and automotive sectors, as opposed to traditional heavy industries like coal and steel. These emerging industries align better with current economic structural adjustments [6][21]. 4. Main Beneficiaries of the Policy Leading enterprises are expected to benefit from the closure of outdated capacities. However, if private enterprises have complex and high-end industries without clear outdated capacities, the effectiveness of the policy remains uncertain [7][8]. 5. Future Core Policies Future anti-involution policies will include price red lines, industry self-discipline, capacity control, local investment regulations, mergers and acquisitions, credit constraints, fiscal policies, and environmental supervision [10][16]. 6. Market Expectations and Policy Implementation The current anti-involution market is characterized by short-term thematic trading driven by policy expectations. The market is awaiting the actual implementation of policies to trigger significant changes in industry capacity cycles [2][20]. 7. Investment Potential Analysis Financial data analysis indicates that industries at the bottom of the capacity cycle, such as glass fiber and photovoltaic equipment, show potential for investment. The evaluation metrics include fixed asset turnover, gross margin, capital expenditure, and revenue growth [22][23]. 8. Concerns Over Capacity Overhang Certain sectors, such as kitchen appliances and military electronics, are facing significant capacity overhang issues, which require cautious observation [23]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Role of Local Investment Practices The central government is increasingly focusing on local investment practices to avoid vicious competition and resource waste, indicating a need for regulation [11]. 2. Challenges in Mergers and Acquisitions Mergers and acquisitions are seen as a method to improve efficiency but face implementation challenges due to the time required for market-driven processes [12]. 3. Historical Context of Supply-Side Reform The initial phase of supply-side reform faced skepticism, similar to the current anti-involution phase, highlighting the need for time to assess actual effects [13][18]. 4. Future Economic Planning The upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan may focus on anti-involution as a mainline policy, especially in light of capacity overhang issues in sectors like photovoltaic and lithium batteries [17]. 5. Phased Development of Anti-Involution The anti-involution policy is expected to evolve through distinct phases, from policy expectation to implementation and eventual demand expansion, mirroring past economic cycles [19][20].