GlobalData (DATA) Update / Briefing Transcript

Summary of the Automotive Outlook Webinar Industry Overview - The webinar focused on the automotive outlook for the Asia Pacific region, excluding China, with insights into the impact of US tariffs on vehicle production and sales across various countries in the region [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments General Market Outlook - The overall growth in the Asia Pacific region is projected at a moderate rate of 3%, primarily driven by expansions in China and India [4][5]. - Excluding China, production in the Asia Pacific is expected to remain flat compared to the previous year, with no growth anticipated in Japan and declines in Korea and ASEAN [4][5]. Impact of US Tariffs - The US tariffs are expected to significantly impact vehicle exports from Japan and Korea, with Japan's vehicle sales projected to decrease by 17-18% compared to pre-tariff forecasts [6][7]. - Cumulative production impacts in Japan are estimated at around 1.1 million units from 2025 to 2028, reducing the forecast from 8.1 million units to 7.7 million units annually for the next three years [8]. - Korea is also expected to face severe impacts, with around 300,000 units per year affected due to the tariffs, and a cumulative reduction of 1 million units in exports from 2025 to 2028 [11][12]. Country-Specific Insights - Japan: The market has shown resilience with a 13% sales increase in the first four months of the year, but long-term demographic issues and a shift towards electrification pose risks [19][20][21]. - Korea: The market is experiencing a decline in exports, with a projected 9% drop in exports this year and a further 13% next year. The production is expected to drop by 6% this year and 7% next year [16][17][18]. - India: The Indian automotive market is expanding, driven by high demand for SUVs and favorable agricultural conditions. Production is expected to reach around 6 million units this year [23][25][29]. - Southeast Asia: Thailand and Indonesia are facing significant challenges due to weak economies and high non-performing loans, leading to a decline in vehicle affordability and sales [30][33][34]. Electrification Trends - There is a rebound in Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) sales, particularly in India, driven by government incentives and new product launches [42][45]. - Hybrid vehicle sales are booming in most markets, benefiting Japanese OEMs, while BEV sales are recovering globally but face challenges due to infrastructure issues and pricing [43][44][46]. Additional Important Insights - The automotive market in Thailand is particularly weak, with sales expected to be the lowest since 2009, largely due to a lack of credit and political instability [30][31]. - The presence of Chinese OEMs is increasing in the region, particularly in Thailand, which may impact future production and export dynamics [33][34]. - The overall production volume for Asia Pacific, excluding China, is expected to remain flat this year, with India being the only market showing expansion [41]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the webinar, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the automotive industry in the Asia Pacific region.