长三角水泥提价进展及水泥反内卷解读

Summary of Cement Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cement industry experienced a 4.3% year-on-year decline in cumulative production in the first half of the year, with a 5.3% decline in June alone, indicating weak demand [1][2] - A seasonal improvement in market demand is expected around mid-August, but the extent of this improvement will depend on the impact of high temperatures [1][2] Key Points on Price Trends - The decline in cement prices in Q2 was primarily due to insufficient supply reduction and relaxed peak-shifting production in some regions, leading to market share competition among companies [1][3] - In the East China, Central South, and Southwest regions, a peak-shifting completion rate of over 90% is necessary to stabilize and increase prices [1][3] - A first round of price rebound is anticipated in core markets like the Yangtze River Delta around mid-August, contingent on the execution of peak-shifting production [1][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply reduction in Q2 was inadequate, contributing to the price decline, with many core regions failing to execute peak-shifting production effectively [3][4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) reported that approved cement capacity is 1.6 billion tons, designed capacity is 1.8 billion tons, and actual capacity is approximately 2.2 billion tons [1][7] Industry Self-Regulation and Capacity Management - Short-term price recovery efforts are focused on industry self-discipline and peak-shifting production, but the progress in eliminating excess capacity has been slow, with only 40 million tons expected to be eliminated this year, far below the annual target of 100 million tons [4][6] - The China Cement Association has called for timely reporting of actual production capacity data to accelerate the elimination of excess capacity [4][6] Future Price Predictions - The cement price in the Yangtze River Delta and other core markets is expected to rebound in August due to improved demand, although the success of price increases will depend on the execution of peak-shifting production [5][29] - The southern market is still at a low point and will need to self-regulate before attempting to raise prices again [5] Regulatory and Monitoring Framework - The future focus of excess capacity governance includes short-term self-regulation and long-term structural reforms, with a call for timely reporting of actual production capacity [6][9] - Key deadlines for excess capacity governance include completing the reporting of actual and supplementary capacity by the end of 2025, with monitoring systems expected to be operational by 2026 [8][9] Regional Market Insights - The cement market in Xinjiang is stable with strong profitability, while the market in Shaanxi is currently declining but expected to rebound in August [22][25] - The production capacity utilization in Yunnan and Guizhou is low, around 30%, making them less attractive for acquisitions compared to Xinjiang [26] Conclusion - The cement industry is facing challenges with excess capacity and price volatility, but there are signs of potential recovery in demand and prices in the coming months. The effectiveness of regulatory measures and industry self-discipline will be crucial in stabilizing the market and improving profitability [1][5][6]