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美国经济前景更新:仍偏向下行”-US Economics US outlook update Still weighted to the downside
2025-07-19 14:57

Summary of Morgan Stanley US Economics Outlook Update Industry Overview - Industry: US Economy - Focus: Economic outlook for 2025-2026, including growth, inflation, fiscal policy, trade, and immigration impacts Core Points and Arguments 1. Economic Growth Expectations: - Slow growth projected with real GDP growth of 0.8% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026 [6][7][18] - Baseline scenario indicates firm inflation with inflation peaking in Q3 2025 [6][7] 2. Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy: - Inflation expected to remain elevated, with core PCE inflation at 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026 [6][18] - Federal Reserve likely to hold rates steady in 2025, with cuts starting in March 2026 [6][11] 3. Fiscal Policy Impact: - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is anticipated to widen the deficit in 2026 but may provide a growth impulse of 0.4 percentage points to GDP [3][18] - Fiscal multipliers from the OBBBA are higher than previously expected, potentially boosting demand [3][13] 4. Trade and Tariff Effects: - Effective tariff rates projected to rise to approximately 16-17% under the baseline scenario, with potential increases to 23% in a mild recession scenario [9][16] - Recent trade announcements have increased downside risks to the economic outlook, with a 40% probability of a downside scenario [6][8][18] 5. Immigration Policy: - Immigration restrictions are expected to slow potential growth to 1.5%, with net immigration dropping significantly from 2.9 million in 2024 to 300,000 in 2025 [9][18] - Expanded legal immigration could help maintain potential growth at 2.0% in alternative scenarios [3][18] 6. Alternate Scenarios: - Demand Upside: Stronger fiscal multipliers could lead to higher growth and prolonged elevated inflation, with no Fed cuts in 2025 or 2026 [13][18] - Supply Upside: De-escalation in trade and immigration policies could result in faster growth and less aggressive Fed cuts [14][18] - Mild Recession: A trade shock could lead to a GDP decline of 1.2% peak-to-trough, with a significant rise in effective tariff rates [16][18] Other Important Content 1. Unemployment Rate Projections: - Unemployment rate expected to finish 2025 at 4.2% and 2026 at 3.8% under the baseline scenario [6][18] 2. Consumer Confidence and Spending: - Consumer confidence is projected to rebound but remains limited due to high inflation and uncertainty [18] - Consumer spending growth is expected to slow to 1.2% in 2025 before picking up to 1.6% in 2026 [18] 3. Investment Trends: - Nonresidential fixed investment is expected to rise by 4.6% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026, driven by fiscal policy and improved sentiment [18] 4. Credit Conditions: - Credit conditions are expected to tighten further due to high policy rates and elevated uncertainty, with a potential loosening in 2026 [18] 5. Productivity Growth: - Productivity growth is anticipated to bounce back in 2026 after slowing in 2025 [18] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the US economic outlook as presented in the Morgan Stanley report, highlighting the interplay between fiscal policy, trade dynamics, and macroeconomic indicators.