半导体生产设备：2025 年 7 月技术月报-Semiconductor Production Equipment Tech Monthly July 2025

Summary of Semiconductor Production Equipment Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE) - Region: Japan - Industry View: Attractive [1] Key Insights - Market Forecast: The SEAJ updated its forecast for Japan's semiconductor and flat panel display (FPD) manufacturing equipment market, predicting a growth of 2% for F3/26 and 10% for F3/27 [13] - Sales Projections: - Total SPE sales for the year ending March 2026 are estimated at ¥5,124.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [15] - Wafer Process Equipment sales are projected at ¥3,648.9 billion for the same period, also showing a 10% increase [15] - WFE Revenue Trends: - WFE revenue is expected to reach ¥109,058 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6% [12] - Total semiconductor revenue is forecasted to be ¥710,095 million in 2025, with a 13% increase from the previous year [12] Company-Specific Insights - Tokyo Electron: - Price target raised due to improved sentiment in the front-end SPE market [14] - DISCO: - Non-consolidated sales increased by 10.1% year-on-year to ¥75.4 billion for Apr-Jun 2025, exceeding guidance [24] - Demand for SiC device applications is accelerating, with strong shipments reported for Taiwan OSAT and China [25] - Advantest: - Anticipated strong demand for AI GPU testers and a significant increase in F3/26 guidance due to robust sales [30] - Screen Holdings: - Recommended as an Overweight (OW) due to high operating rates and attractive share price [28] Market Dynamics - AI Demand: The computation required for AI is increasing exponentially, driving demand for semiconductor production equipment [6] - China's Capex Resumption: Chinese manufacturers are resuming capital expenditures towards the second half of 2025, although risks remain due to US restrictions [27] - Back-End Equipment Demand: There is a booming demand for back-end equipment, particularly for generative AI HBM devices [27] Risks and Considerations - Downside Risks: - Sluggish global demand for electronics and prolonged corrections in the semiconductor market due to high inflation and US-China trade tensions [56][66] - Upside Risks: - Stronger-than-expected recovery in smartphone demand and semiconductor investments could drive growth [60][65] Conclusion The semiconductor production equipment industry in Japan is poised for growth, driven by advancements in technology and increasing demand for AI-related applications. Companies like Tokyo Electron, DISCO, and Advantest are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, although potential risks from geopolitical tensions and market corrections remain.