出口转移正在发生吗？-Japan Economics-Is Export Diversion Underway

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Japanese export industry, particularly focusing on the impact of US tariff policies on export values to North America and the diversification of export destinations by Japanese companies [2][3][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Export Diversification: - Exports to Europe and the Middle East are increasing, compensating for the significant decline in exports to North America. This indicates a trend of Japanese exporters diversifying their markets in response to anticipated higher US tariffs [2][3]. 2. Year-over-Year Export Trends: - Japan's export value to the US, Canada, and Mexico has decreased notably, with a reported decline of -25.3% YoY for passenger vehicles. However, total export value remains nearly flat at -0.5% YoY due to growth in other regions [3][4][11]. 3. Comparison with 2018: - Current export trends differ from those observed in 2018 when the US raised tariffs. Real exports for April to June 2025 were nearly flat at +0.1% QoQ, with a solid +3.2% MoM increase in June [4][12]. 4. Impact of Tariffs on Pricing: - Many automakers have reduced export prices to absorb tariff impacts, with some companies imposing tariff surcharges. However, most are absorbing the tariffs without fully passing them on to customers [4][5][9]. 5. Future Tariff Adjustments: - As US-Japan trade negotiations continue, companies may adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding price adjustments. Once tariff rates are finalized, real exports to the US may gradually be affected [5][8]. 6. Strong Performance in Specific Categories: - Exports of batteries, metal products, and food items to the US have maintained positive YoY growth, indicating that export trends vary significantly by product category [9][11]. Additional Important Insights - Market Adaptation: A Japanese company exporting premium Omi beef has begun exporting to Dubai to reduce dependence on the US market, exemplifying the shift in export strategies [3]. - Automotive Sector Challenges: The automotive sector faces a projected sales volume decline of approximately 12% if the current tariff on automobiles remains in place [8]. - Export Value Statistics: The export value growth by major destination shows significant declines for North America while other regions like the Middle East and Africa show strong double-digit growth [11][19]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the Japanese export industry amidst changing tariff policies and market dynamics.