美国关税推高物价，消费者消费如常-US Economics Weekly-Tariffs hit prices, consumers carried on

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the US economy and its outlook, focusing on inflation, consumer spending, and the impact of tariffs on prices and economic growth [7][23][24]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Inflation Trends: - CPI inflation accelerated in June, with core CPI rising by 0.23% month-over-month compared to 0.13% in May. Core PCE is expected to be 0.29% month-over-month for June, indicating a stronger inflationary trend [7][8][16]. - The tariff-driven impulse is becoming more evident, particularly in heavily tariffed categories such as appliances and electronics, which showed signs of price acceleration [9][11]. 2. Consumer Spending: - Retail sales were solid, with expectations of real spending growth at 1.6% quarter-over-quarter for Q2. Despite a slowdown in spending growth, there are no immediate signs of weakness [7][17]. - Real consumption growth is projected to be 0.3% month-over-month in June, with an average growth of 2.5% over the past four quarters, which is slower than the previous year's average of approximately 3% [17][18]. 3. Economic Outlook: - A significant slowdown in growth is anticipated in Q3 and Q4 due to rising prices affecting consumer spending. However, the unemployment rate is expected to remain low due to restrictive immigration policies [23][24]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current policy stance throughout 2025, with potential cuts beginning in 2026, contingent on labor market conditions [23][24]. 4. Tariff Impact: - The baseline forecast anticipates a total tariff push to core PCE of about 60 basis points in 2025, with only 10-15 basis points of this impact realized so far [11][24]. - Recent tariff announcements have increased the probability of a downside scenario, potentially leading to a mild recession if all tariffs go into effect [24]. 5. Container Traffic and Trade: - Container traffic from China to the US remains stable, with no significant changes in the number of vessels or used capacity, indicating a steady trade environment despite high tariff rates [27][28]. Additional Important Insights - Labor Market: Initial and continuing jobless claims have decreased, suggesting a resilient labor market, which may support consumer spending despite inflationary pressures [16][23]. - Investment Trends: Business investments are expected to pick up, driven by fiscal policy, although there are concerns about the impact of tariffs on capital expenditures [23][24]. - Consumer Confidence: Confidence is rebounding but remains limited due to ongoing economic uncertainties, high inflation, and sluggish growth [24]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and future expectations.