美联储理事克里斯托弗・沃勒重申 7 月降息呼吁-USA_ Fed Governor Christopher Waller Reiterates Call for a July Cut

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions, particularly in relation to interest rate cuts. Core Points and Arguments 1. Interest Rate Cut Proposal: Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a 25 basis points cut in the funds rate at the upcoming July meeting, citing three main reasons [2][3][8] 2. Inflation Expectations: Waller believes that the inflation increase due to tariffs will be temporary and should be "looked through," as the slowing economy may limit persistent inflation boosts [2][3] 3. GDP Growth Projections: Waller estimates GDP growth at around 1% for the first half of 2025, indicating that growth will remain soft throughout the year. He argues that the policy rate should be close to neutral rather than restrictive [3][8] 4. Labor Market Concerns: There are signs of increasing downside risks in the labor market, with private payroll growth near stall speed. Waller anticipates significant downward revisions to nonfarm payrolls, estimating a potential reduction of 500-700k jobs [7][8] 5. Diverse Opinions Among FOMC Members: Other FOMC participants express varying views on rate cuts, with some suggesting to maintain the current policy rate until more clarity on inflation trends emerges [8][9] 6. Future Rate Cut Expectations: The expectation is for three consecutive 25 basis points cuts in September, October, and December of this year, followed by two additional cuts in 2026, leading to a terminal funds rate range of 3-3.25% [5][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Waller's comments reflect a broader concern about the labor market's health and its implications for monetary policy, emphasizing the need for a cautious approach to rate cuts [7][8] - The discussion highlights the complexity of the current economic environment, where inflation, GDP growth, and labor market conditions are interlinked and require careful monitoring [3][8] - The differing perspectives among FOMC members indicate a lack of consensus on the timing and necessity of rate cuts, which could impact market expectations and investor sentiment [8][9]