Summary of TSMC Earnings Call Company Overview - Company: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - Industry: Semiconductors - Market Cap: NT$29,298,587 million - Stock Rating: Overweight (OW) - Price Target: NT$1,288.00 - Current Price: NT$1,130.00 Key Financial Highlights - 2Q25 Revenue: NT$933,792 million, up 11.3% quarter-over-quarter (Q/Q) and 38.6% year-over-year (Y/Y) [1] - 2Q25 EPS: NT$15.36, exceeding Morgan Stanley's estimate of NT$14.60, reflecting a 10.2% Q/Q and 60.7% Y/Y increase [5] - Gross Margin (GM): 58.6%, higher than the estimate of 57.5% despite a 180 basis points (bps) margin impact from foreign exchange (FX) [5] - Operating Expenses (Opex): NT$83,946 million, down 2.7% Q/Q and up 17.3% Y/Y [1] - Operating Profit Margin (OPM): 49.6%, better than the estimate of 47.7% [1] Guidance and Future Outlook - 3Q25 Revenue Guidance: Expected to grow 8% Q/Q in USD terms, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 1% Q/Q [5] - 2025 Full-Year Revenue Guidance: Revised up to 30% Y/Y growth from the original mid-20% estimate, surpassing market expectations [5] - 2026 Margin Outlook: Expected to maintain GM above 53% despite FX impacts [5] - AI Demand: Strong demand for AI semiconductors, with management maintaining a mid-40% revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for cloud AI semiconductors over the next five years [5] Strategic Insights - HPC Demand: The company cited strong demand in High-Performance Computing (HPC), including AI, as a key driver for revenue growth [5] - China Market: The resumption of H20 shipments is viewed positively, given the significant potential in the China AI market [5] - Capacity Management: TSMC aims to narrow the gap between demand and supply for CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) capacity [5] Analyst Sentiment - Investment Thesis: The earnings report strengthens the investment thesis with meaningful upside potential [2] - Stock Price Potential: In a bullish scenario, the stock price could increase by 2%-5% due to the upward revision in guidance and strong AI demand [5] Risks - Upside Risks: Increased demand for AI semiconductors and maintaining high market share in leading-edge foundry business [9] - Downside Risks: Potential inventory corrections and weakening demand for leading-edge technologies [9] Conclusion - TSMC's strong financial performance in 2Q25, coupled with an optimistic outlook for the remainder of 2025, positions the company favorably within the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of growing AI demand and strategic capacity management.
台积电 2025 年全年营收增速上调至同比增长 30%；重申增持评级-TSMC-2025 full-year revenue revised up to 30% YY growth; reiterate OW