中国房地产月度追踪：6 月数据走差，预计三季度弱势延续-China Property-Monthly Tracker June Data Worsened; We Expect Weak Trend to Continue in 3Q

Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Property market, specifically analyzing trends in property sales, prices, and inventory levels in the Asia Pacific region [1][9]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Decline in Property Sales: - Property sales in June experienced a significant drop, with primary sales volume in 65 cities decreasing by 23% year-on-year compared to a 12% decline in May. Secondary sales volume in 33 cities fell by 5% year-on-year, reversing a 1% increase in May [3]. - Year-to-date growth for primary sales is now at -6% year-on-year, while secondary sales show a +11% year-on-year increase for the first half of 2025 [3]. 2. Falling Housing Prices: - Primary home prices in 70 cities dropped by 3.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month in June, worsening from a 0.2% month-on-month decline in May. Secondary home prices fell by 6.1% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [4]. - In top-10 cities, secondary prices decreased by 5.3% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, while in top-100 cities, the decline was 7.3% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month [4]. 3. Increased Inventory Levels: - Primary inventory months rose to 23.8x in May, with tier 1 cities at 14.3x, tier 2 cities at 24.0x, and tier 3 cities at 29.0x [6]. 4. Land Sales Trends: - Land sales in 300 cities showed a 4.4% year-on-year decline in gross floor area (GFA) but a 36.9% year-on-year increase in value, primarily due to changes in city mix. The year-to-date decline in land sales is now -5.0% year-on-year in GFA [7]. 5. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook: - The weakened resident sentiment and reactive policy measures are expected to exert additional pressure on home prices in the third quarter of 2025. The report suggests maintaining a defensive and selective investment approach, focusing on quality state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with high visibility, such as CR Land [1][2]. Additional Important Insights - Client Engagement: Client visits increased by 14% year-on-year but decreased by 5% month-on-month [5]. - Secondary Listing Trends: Secondary listing prices fell by 8.2% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, while new secondary listings remained stable with a -1% month-on-month change and a +13% year-on-year increase [5]. - Investment Recommendations: The report highlights CR Land (1109.HK) and CR Mixc (1209.HK) as consumption beneficiaries, and C&D (1908.HK) and Greentown Management (9979.HK) as high-dividend-yield plays [2]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China property market, emphasizing the ongoing challenges and strategic recommendations for investors.