更新我们的关税假设_ 缓慢攀升至更高水平-US Daily_ Updating Our Tariff Assumptions_ A Slightly Slower Rise to a Higher Level (Phillips_Peng)

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the impact of proposed tariff changes on various sectors of the U.S. economy, particularly focusing on trade policies announced by President Trump. Core Insights and Arguments - Tariff Proposals: President Trump has proposed higher tariffs on countries that account for ¾ of U.S. imports, with potential baseline tariff rates rising to 15-20% [2][4][5] - Sector-Specific Tariffs: A significant increase in sectoral tariffs, particularly a 50% tariff on copper, was announced, which is double the previously expected rate [2][7] - Pharmaceutical Tariffs: There is uncertainty regarding the implementation of tariffs on pharmaceuticals, which may be delayed for up to 18 months, potentially affecting the overall effective tariff rate [2][10][18] - Effective Tariff Rate (ETR) Forecast: The near-term ETR is expected to rise slightly more slowly than previously anticipated but will still end the year approximately 14 percentage points (pp) higher than it started [2][21] - Country-Specific Tariffs: Proposed country-specific tariffs could add an additional 3.2pp to the ETR if implemented [22] Additional Important Content - Historical Context: Previous tariff deadlines have shown a pattern where proposed increases are often reversed or reduced before implementation, leading to a higher ETR than before but lower than initially proposed [11][12] - Legal Risks: There are potential legal challenges that could impact tariff rates, particularly concerning the baseline tariff and sectoral tariffs [14] - Sectoral Investigations: Ongoing investigations into pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are expected to conclude soon, which could lead to further tariff announcements [8] - Impact on Trading Partners: The proposed tariffs will have varying impacts on different trading partners, with specific rates outlined for countries like Brazil (50%), the EU (30%), and Canada (35%) [5][24] Conclusion - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious approach to the anticipated rise in tariffs, with a focus on the implications for various sectors and trading partners. The potential for delays and legal challenges adds complexity to the tariff landscape, necessitating close monitoring of developments in trade policy.