如何看待当前美国经济数据？

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current economic situation in the United States is characterized by a gradual decline, with inflation and retail data showing signs of weakness. The CPI is expected to rise to around 3% in September-October and potentially reach 3.3%-3.5% by year-end, influenced by geopolitical factors and tariffs [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - Inflation and Retail Sales: In June, retail sales increased by 0.6%, but the actual growth rate was only 0.3%, indicating insufficient consumer market resilience. The impact of tariffs is causing a dampening effect on consumer expectations, which may lead to further pressure on consumer sentiment [1][2]. - Economic Stagnation: The U.S. economy is showing signs of stagflation, with slight inflation increases and poor retail performance. Despite decent non-farm payroll data in June, the structure of employment remains weak, suggesting significant room for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year [2][3]. - Market Optimism: There is a prevailing optimism in the market, with expectations of breaking through a peak in the second half of 2024. Investors believe the most challenging phase has passed, and domestic policies will remain supportive to counter external uncertainties [4][5]. - Consumer Subsidy Policies: The effectiveness of domestic subsidy policies, particularly in the home appliance and automotive sectors, has led to a notable recovery in retail growth, indicating that demand has not been exhausted. These policies are expected to continue, with a gradual tapering process [6][10]. - Emerging Industries: Emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence and robotics are receiving significant policy support and technological advancements, positioning them as potential new growth points for the economy [8][10]. Additional Important Content - Investment Recommendations: Three key sectors are recommended for investment: 1. Consumer Sector: Focus on domestic subsidy-related areas, offline service consumption, and new consumption trends. 2. Technology Sector: Emphasis on AI, robotics, and the semiconductor supply chain. 3. Dividend Sector: High dividend, stable cash flow, and low valuation stocks are suggested for long-term positioning [10][11]. - Market Liquidity: The market has seen a good effect from liquidity and inflow of incremental funds, with a solid foundation for individual investors to enter the market [7]. - Future Market Trends: The market is expected to transition from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven growth, with potential for a new upward trend in the second half of the year [9][11]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the current economic landscape, core insights, and investment opportunities within the U.S. market.