再推钼：价格突破4000元吨度，继续看多！

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the molybdenum industry, particularly its price dynamics and demand in various sectors such as energy, high-end manufacturing, and military applications [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Molybdenum prices have surged to approximately 40,000 RMB per ton, driven by strong demand across multiple sectors, particularly in special steel and high-end stainless steel [1][2]. - The actual demand for molybdenum in China exceeded expectations in the first half of 2025, with a 13% year-on-year increase in "tender volume," indicating robust demand for special materials [6]. - The military-grade special steel demand is expected to rise gradually in 2025, with molybdenum iron and concentrate levels dropping significantly, suggesting potential for price increases due to supply-demand imbalances [1][9]. - A state-owned molybdenum mining company in central China is expected to halt production, impacting national output by approximately 7-8% and global supply by about 3-4%, which could further elevate prices [10]. Specific Applications of Molybdenum - Molybdenum is primarily used in the steel industry, with 85% of its demand coming from special steel and high-end stainless steel, particularly in military applications [3][4]. - The addition of molybdenum enhances the properties of steel, making it more resistant to high temperatures and corrosion, which is crucial for energy applications [3]. Market Dynamics and Trends - The steel industry is experiencing internal competition, leading to a shift towards higher-quality products, which indirectly boosts molybdenum demand as companies adjust their formulas to include more alloying elements [5]. - The growth in demand for high-end stainless steel has slowed, but military and manufacturing materials are emerging as new growth drivers [8]. Future Supply Expectations - Domestic molybdenum production is expected to see limited growth until at least 2028, with anticipated production growth rates of only 2-3% in 2026 and 2027 [11]. - Global molybdenum supply growth is projected at around 3% over the next two years, indicating a tight supply environment [11]. Price Projections - Molybdenum prices are expected to range between 4,000 and 4,500 USD per ton, with potential spikes to 5,000 USD per ton if military demand or production cuts catalyze further price increases [10][12]. Company Outlook - Jinmoly Co. is projected to achieve revenues exceeding 4 billion RMB if molybdenum prices reach 4,500 USD per ton, with a potential valuation increase from 8-9 times earnings to 11-12 times [13]. - Guocheng Mining, after asset injections, could produce 6,000-7,000 tons of molybdenum annually, with long-term profits expected to reach 2.5-3 billion RMB, suggesting a valuation increase from single digits to 15 times earnings [13].