锡牛或将启，布局迎时机 锡行业深度报告

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The global tin resource is limited and concentrated, with China holding the largest share of reserves. However, insufficient exploration investment has led to a decrease in the static extraction ratio, indicating a reduction in the lifespan of existing reserves, necessitating increased exploration efforts [1][3][4] - Supply-side disruptions significantly impact tin prices, with events such as Myanmar's suspension of mining and delays in Indonesia's export license approvals driving prices higher. Future tin prices are expected to rise due to increasing global mining costs and a scarcity of large, high-quality new mines [1][4] Demand Dynamics - The downstream demand for tin is primarily concentrated in the semiconductor sector, which fluctuates in tandem with infrastructure changes. The development of AI technology is anticipated to boost the semiconductor cycle, positively affecting tin prices [1][5] - The macroeconomic environment, particularly the onset of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to improve global liquidity, supporting industrial metals, including tin [5][6] Supply Chain Challenges - Myanmar's recovery progress is slow, impacted by physical tax tightening, earthquakes, material shortages, and seasonal rains, making it difficult to restore previous production levels. The expected impact of Myanmar's recovery on global tin supply is limited [1][7][8] - Indonesia has shifted from exporting raw tin to refined tin, but the approval of mining quotas is delayed due to political changes and corruption investigations, leading to supply constraints. Future offshore mining efforts face increased costs and operational challenges [1][9] Inventory and Price Support - Global tin inventory levels are low, providing support for future tin prices. Current global supply is expected to have a shortfall, but this may be alleviated by Myanmar's recovery and new overseas production capacities coming online by 2026-2027 [1][12][13] Company-Specific Insights - Tin Industry Co., as the largest tin producer in China, has significant potential for internal expansion, with expected annual copper production reaching 940,000 tons and tungsten production at 560,000 tons, alongside a capacity of 1.5 million tons [2][14] - The company has established strategic partnerships to create an integrated new industrial base in northern China, focusing on resource and smelting integration [2][15] Future Outlook - The overall market is expected to maintain a stable upward price trend, with a projected global supply shortfall of 8,000 tons this year and a domestic shortfall of 16,000 tons. The anticipated recovery of Myanmar and new production capacities may help alleviate these shortages in the coming years [13] - The market's understanding of Tin Industry Co.'s growth potential is not fully recognized, but the company has substantial room for volume growth, particularly in its main mining operations [14] Conclusion - The tin industry is navigating a complex landscape of supply constraints, evolving demand dynamics, and macroeconomic influences. The strategic initiatives of key players like Tin Industry Co. position them well for future growth amidst these challenges [19]