警惕特朗普关税再次升级、解雇鲍威尔改变不了货币政策、美国推行稳定币的战略野心

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. stock market, trade policies, and the development of stablecoins in the context of the U.S. economy and financial system [1][3][13]. Core Points and Arguments 1. U.S. Stock Market Performance: The U.S. stock market continues to reach new highs, with the Nasdaq index rising due to Nvidia's influence, and the S&P 500 index surpassing 6,300 points, reflecting optimistic expectations for economic recovery [1][3]. 2. Tariff Concerns: There are indications that the Trump administration may escalate tariffs affecting various sectors, including copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, with potential impacts on Canada, Mexico, the EU, Japan, and South Korea [1][4]. 3. Tariff Revenue: In June, U.S. tariff revenue reached $26.6 billion, the highest in decades, suggesting that the tariff policy significantly contributes to fiscal revenue, which may encourage further tariff implementations [1][6]. 4. Corporate Preparedness: U.S. companies have stockpiled inventory in anticipation of potential tariff increases, which may mitigate the direct economic impact of new tariffs [1][7]. 5. Federal Reserve Leadership: The likelihood of Trump successfully firing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is low, and even if a new chairman is appointed, it would not singularly alter monetary policy, which is primarily determined by the FOMC [1][10][11]. 6. Stablecoin Development: The U.S. is actively promoting the development of stablecoins to maintain its technological and financial innovation edge, increase demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, and re-establish the dollar's dominance in the global financial system [1][13]. 7. Impact of Tariffs on Inflation: The economic impact of tariffs appears moderate, with inflation data consistently below expectations, which may encourage the continuation of tariff policies [1][6]. 8. Market Stability: The overall market is stabilizing, with both stock and bond volatility indices (VIX and MOVE) declining to their lowest levels since 2025, indicating recovery from previous tariff shocks [3]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Legal Framework for Stablecoins: The U.S. relies on several acts, such as the Clarity Act and Genius Act, to regulate stablecoins, which face challenges like cross-jurisdictional issues and financial stability concerns [18]. 2. Global Debt Holdings: Tether and Circle, two major stablecoin issuers, hold approximately $120 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, making them the 18th largest holders globally, with potential to become major players in the future [2][16]. 3. Public Sentiment on Dollar Assets: Many residents in various countries prefer holding dollar assets due to their stability, and stablecoins provide a convenient means for these individuals to access dollar-denominated assets without traditional banking barriers [14]. 4. Trump's Relationship with the Fed: Trump's ongoing criticism of Powell and the Fed is driven by personal interests in lower interest rates to alleviate government debt pressures, despite market skepticism regarding the effectiveness of such measures [12][15].