绿电行业深度：新能源全面入市，三大压制因素释放绿电迎反转

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the green electricity (绿电) industry, particularly the impact of policy-driven market transactions and the challenges faced by listed companies in this sector [1][3][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - Investment Logic: The investment logic in the green electricity sector is driven by policy changes and market transaction rules, emphasizing cash flow value and marginal changes, contrasting with nuclear power investment logic [1][3]. - Valuation Factors: Key factors affecting the valuation of the green electricity industry include: - Settlement electricity prices, which have been declining since 2020, directly impacting cash inflows and long-term returns [1][6]. - Consumption issues due to high installed capacity leading to limited operating hours, negatively affecting net cash flow and project returns [6][21]. - Subsidy arrears, which suppress free cash flow due to slow central government payment schedules [6][26]. - Policy Impact: The issuance of Document No. 136 is expected to enhance market certainty for both existing and new projects, stabilize electricity prices, and improve cash flow through better subsidy management [1][7][10]. Important but Overlooked Content - Market Dynamics: The transition to a market-driven pricing mechanism is anticipated to stabilize overall electricity prices and improve the profitability of existing projects [10][12]. - Capital Expenditure Trends: The industry is expected to see a rational return in capital expenditures, with new installed capacity projected to decrease from an average of 250-300 GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan to 200 GW in the 15th [24]. - Emerging Opportunities: The green certificate prices have risen due to increased requirements for high-energy-consuming industries to use green electricity, indicating potential additional revenue for green electricity companies [20]. - Future Subsidy Solutions: Historical subsidy arrears are expected to be resolved through natural growth and policy support, with discussions around special bonds or secured loans to expedite this process [27]. Recommendations for Specific Companies - Companies such as Longyuan Power, New天绿色能源, and 大唐新能源 are advised to adapt their strategies in response to the new market environment post-Document No. 136, focusing on optimizing capital expenditure and improving operational efficiency [8][28]. Conclusion - The green electricity sector is poised for a transformation driven by policy changes, market dynamics, and rational capital expenditure, which could lead to improved cash flow and valuation for companies in this space [7][30].