每周监测：锂供应中断-Weekly Monitor_ Lithium Supply Disruption

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry Focus: Greater China Materials, specifically lithium supply disruption and related commodities [1] - Market Sentiment: The industry view is considered attractive by Morgan Stanley [6] Commodity Price Movements Base Metals - Copper: Prices decreased by 0.1% week-over-week (WoW) with inventories increasing by 3.8% WoW [2] - Aluminum: Prices fell by 0.4% WoW, while inventories rose by 5.5% WoW [2] Battery Metals - Lithium Hydroxide: Prices for both industrial-grade and battery-grade remained flat WoW [2] - Lithium Carbonate: Prices increased by 2.1% for industrial-grade and 2.0% for battery-grade WoW [2] Precious Metals - Gold: Price decreased by 0.5% WoW, settling at US$3,339 per ounce [2] Steel - HRC and CRC Prices: Both increased by 1.5% WoW; rebar prices rose by 0.6% WoW [3] - Long Steel Inventories: Increased by 2.7% WoW, while flat steel inventories decreased by 0.6% WoW [3] Cement and Coal - Cement Prices: Decreased by 1.3% WoW to Rmb328 per ton [3] - Coal Prices: QHD5500 coal price increased by 0.3% WoW to Rmb660 per ton, with inventory rising by 3.2% WoW to 5.78 million tons [3] Glass - Glass Fiber Prices: Average prices fell by 1.7% WoW to Rmb3,900 per ton [4] - Float Glass Prices: Increased by 1.0% WoW to Rmb1,251 per ton [4] - Solar Glass Prices: Decreased by 2.7% WoW to Rmb18.0 per square meter [4] Regulatory and Market Developments - CISA Actions: The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) is cracking down on steel export tax evasion, with 2025 steel exports expected to remain around 70 to 80 million tons [8] - Export Restrictions: The Ministry of Commerce has added battery cathode material preparation technology to the "Catalog of Technologies Prohibited from Export" [8] - Production Suspension: Zangge Lithium has suspended production as ordered [8] Analyst Insights - Analyst Ratings: Various companies in the Greater China Materials sector have been rated, with several receiving an "Overweight" rating indicating expected performance above the industry average [62][64] - Investment Banking Relationships: Morgan Stanley has received compensation from several companies in the sector, indicating potential conflicts of interest [17][20] Conclusion - The Greater China Materials sector is experiencing mixed price movements across various commodities, with regulatory actions impacting the steel and lithium markets. Analysts maintain an attractive view of the industry, suggesting potential investment opportunities despite the challenges.