中国房地产-AlphaWise 2025 年 7 月中国房地产调查：市场情绪进一步恶化-China Property-AlphaWise China Property Survey July 2025 - Sentiment Worsened Further

Summary of the AlphaWise China Property Survey July 2025 Industry Overview - Industry: China Property - Survey Conducted: July 14-16, 2025 - Sample Size: 2,060 residents across Tier 1 to Tier 4 cities - Margin of Error: ±1.7% at 90% confidence level [6][7] Key Findings Housing Price Outlook - Worsening Sentiment: A net 33% of respondents expect housing prices to fall in the next 12 months, a slight improvement from 36% in April [2][15] - Tier 1 Cities: 50% of respondents in Tier 1 cities anticipate a decline in housing prices, compared to 45% in Tier 2 cities [2][15] Home Selling Trends - Urgency to Sell: 44% of potential home sellers plan to sell within the next six months, down from 47% in April [3][18] - Willingness to Accept Losses: 56% of homeowners are willing to take a loss on their sale, up from 43% in April. Only 18% insist on selling above their purchase price, down from 21% [3][19][22] Home Purchase Plans - Weak Purchase Intentions: 51% of respondents are likely to consider buying property in the future, a slight increase from 49% in April. However, only 16% are "extremely likely" to purchase, up from 15% [4][11] - Short-term Expectations: Only 3% expect to make a purchase within the next 12 months, indicating continued caution among potential buyers [4][11] Investment Recommendations - Defensive Strategy: Given the weak physical market expected to persist into Q3, a cautious and selective investment approach is recommended [5] - Stock Suggestions: - Consumption Beneficiaries: CR Land (1109.HK) and CR Mixc (1209.HK) - High-Dividend-Yield Plays: C&D (1908.HK) and Greentown Management (9979.HK) [5] Additional Insights - Negative Feedback Loop: The combination of increased inventory, weak purchase plans, and homeowners' willingness to sell at a loss may prolong declines in property sales and home prices into Q3 [1][4] - Market Dynamics: The survey reflects a broader trend of declining confidence in the property market, particularly in major urban centers [2][17] Conclusion The AlphaWise survey indicates a continued decline in sentiment regarding the Chinese property market, with homeowners increasingly willing to accept losses and potential buyers remaining cautious. Investment strategies should focus on defensive positions and companies with strong visibility in the current market environment.