中国物业管理与服务-2025 年上半年前瞻：利润率改善带动盈利符合预期；现金回笼压力值得关注China Property Management & Services-1H25 Preview In-line Earnings on Better Margin; Cash Collection Pressure Bears Watching

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - Industry: China Property Management & Services - Earnings Growth: Expected average earnings growth of 6% year-on-year (y-y) in 1H25, with revenue growth of 5% and improved operating efficiencies [1][3] - Cash Collection: Cash collection has weakened further, with a focus on this issue during the results briefing [1][3] Key Points Earnings and Revenue Expectations - Earnings Growth: PMCs (Property Management Companies) are expected to report an average earnings growth of 6% y-y, with notable divergence among companies [3] - Top Performers: GTS and Mixc are projected to achieve the highest earnings growth of 15-20% y-y, followed by Onewo (10-15% y-y) [3] - Decliners: CGS and Sunac Services are expected to see a decline of 5-10% in earnings [3] Cash Collection and Financial Health - Cash Collection Ratio: The cash collection ratio is anticipated to weaken by 1-2 percentage points y-y on average, attributed to less advanced payment from residential owners amid ongoing macroeconomic challenges [3][9] - Operating Cash Flow: Many PMCs may report negative operating cash flow in 1H due to seasonality, making the full-year operating cash flow/net profit coverage ratio critical for long-term dividend sustainability [3][9] - Impairment Ratio: There is a concern regarding the impairment ratio for third-party accounts receivables due to aging trade receivables and continued weak cash collection [3] Dividend Outlook - Potential Dividend Increases: There is potential for further dividend raises given PMCs' decent cash flow and strong cash balances [3] - Dividend Policies: Companies like Onewo are expected to maintain a regular payout ratio of 55%, with expectations for special dividends [11] Market Dynamics - Third-Party Expansion: Despite rising competition, third-party expansion is on track, indicating market share gains [1][3] - SSSG Guidance: The outlook for same-store sales growth (SSSG) and rental reversion for mall operators, particularly CR Mixc, is a key area to watch [3] Stock Recommendations - Preferred Stocks: Companies with good earnings visibility and strong dividend outlooks are recommended, including: - Resilient Growth: CR Mixc (1209.HK) and GTS (2869.HK) - High Dividend Yield: Onewo (1908.HK) and GTM (9979.HK) [4] Additional Insights - Revenue Growth Drivers: Revenue growth is primarily driven by basic property management services, while value-added services (VAS) remain muted due to weak macro conditions [15] - Margin Stability: Gross margins are expected to remain stable, although there may be pressure from newly expanded external projects amid heightened competition [16] - Core Profit Growth: Core profit growth is expected to average 6% y-y, with double-digit growth for GTS (20% y-y), Mixc (15% y-y), and Onewo (11% y-y) [17] Conclusion The China Property Management & Services industry is facing challenges with cash collection and competition, but there are opportunities for growth and dividend increases among select companies. The focus on earnings visibility and financial health will be crucial for investors in the upcoming reporting period.