策略对话金属：钢铁反内卷行情展望

Summary of Steel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The steel industry is currently facing significant challenges due to a decline in the real estate sector, leading to a sharp drop in steel prices from 5,000-6,000 RMB to a low of 3,000 RMB [1][2] - Raw material costs (coking coal, coke, iron ore) account for over 70% of steel production costs, severely squeezing gross margins and pushing the industry towards cash flow losses, comparable to the situation in 2015 [1][2] - The unhealthy state of perfect competition in the steel industry has benefited upstream raw material suppliers, allowing major mining companies to control supply and maintain high profits [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - There are high expectations for supply-side reforms in the steel industry, with significant market attention and enthusiasm [1][4] - Recent government initiatives, including a "ten major growth stabilization plans," prioritize the steel sector, focusing on capacity structure adjustments, phasing out outdated equipment, and optimizing production capacity [1][4] - Historical data indicates that steel stocks exhibit a "short and quick" market behavior, with strong explosive potential during reform periods, as seen in 2017 [1][5] Historical Context - From 2016 to 2018, the steel industry implemented significant supply-side reforms, including the elimination of outdated capacity, resulting in the removal of approximately 145 million tons of outdated production capacity [6][7] - The crackdown on non-compliant rebar production led to a substantial reduction in effective supply, pushing steel prices higher [7] - In 2021, under the dual carbon policy, administrative reductions in crude steel production resulted in a price surge, but the market weakened in the fourth quarter due to supply stabilization policies [8] Future Outlook - The steel industry is expected to enter a transitional phase in 2025, with a full-scale supply-side reform 2.0 beginning in 2026, focusing on ultra-low emissions, energy efficiency improvements, and carbon reduction [9][11] - The new policy framework will support the transition of China's economic structure and manufacturing upgrades, favoring high-quality enterprises while phasing out underperforming ones [11] Investment Strategy - In 2025, the best stock selection strategy will focus on companies in the 1.5 to 2 line category, which can enhance profit elasticity with slight cost reductions and have potential for product structure upgrades [12] - Recommended companies include Hualing, Shougang, New Steel, Fangda Special Steel, Sansteel Minguang, and Liugang, which offer a good balance of cost-effectiveness and safety margins [12]