煤炭“反内卷”政策再起，供需拐点明确

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is experiencing a "anti-involution" policy aimed at regulating production levels, with national coal output expected to remain around 1 billion tons in 2025 to curb overproduction and maintain market order [1][2] - The overall coal supply is projected to decline, with domestic production expected to see slight growth while imports are anticipated to decrease significantly [6][8] Core Insights and Arguments - The National Energy Administration's anti-involution policy mandates inspections and shutdowns of coal mines exceeding 10% overproduction, which has positively influenced market expectations and led to a surge in coal sector stocks [2] - In Q1 and Q2 of 2025, the coal industry faced significant downward pressure, prompting some companies to increase production to offset falling prices, which worsened market competition [2] - Electricity consumption growth slowed in early 2025 but began to recover in April, with expectations that annual growth will align with GDP growth at around 5% [9] - The prices of thermal coal and coking coal have risen since late June, indicating a recovery in the coal sector, driven by strong downstream steel demand and lower-than-expected supply due to environmental regulations [11] Regional Production Insights - In April 2025, national coal production was 390 million tons, a decrease of 50 million tons from March, but production rebounded in May and June due to reduced railway freight costs in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang [4] - Inner Mongolia's production is expected to decline due to the lack of approval for capacity increases, while Xinjiang's production may stabilize around 50 million tons per month for the year [4][5] Future Production and Capacity Planning - The production elasticity in Xinjiang is limited, with costs expected to rise again after the end of railway discounts, impacting short-term production [5][7] - New capacity planning in Xinjiang may be influenced by the new leadership's policy direction, which could differ significantly from previous plans [7] Global Supply Trends - Global coal supply is expected to peak in 2025 and begin to decline in 2026, with Australia and Russia's production likely to decrease, and the U.S. restarting coal power plants may reduce export volumes [8] Investment Opportunities and Recommendations - The coal sector, particularly companies benefiting from the anti-involution policy, presents significant investment opportunities. Recommendations include investing in coal ETFs and specific companies such as Jincheng Anthracite, Shanxi Coal, and Shenhua for thermal coal, and Huaiyin Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal for coking coal [16] Additional Considerations - The coal sector's institutional holdings have dropped to a five-year low, indicating a clean chip structure, which may lead to a favorable market environment for future investments [12][15] - The recent recovery in the cyclical commodities market reflects increased market confidence, driven by policy support for infrastructure projects [13][14]