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FOMC会议前:我们的货币预测-Ahead of the July FOMC Our Monetary Forecasts
2025-07-23 02:42

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the North American economy as of July 2025 Core Insights and Arguments - Economic Activity: The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its assessment that economic activity is expanding at "a solid pace" with the labor market described as "solid" and inflation being "somewhat elevated" [5][6][12] - GDP Growth: For the second quarter of 2025, GDP growth is tracked at 2.2% quarter-over-quarter annual rate, with estimates from the Atlanta Fed at 2.4% and the NY Fed at 1.7% [7] - Labor Market: The unemployment rate remains low, unchanged from the previous year, although payroll growth has slowed [8][15] - Inflation Trends: The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated new price pressures due to tariffs, with inflation expected to rise to 3.0% for headline PCE and 3.2% for core PCE in 2025 [14] - Tariff Impact: Tariffs are acting as a tax on consumption and capital, contributing to slower growth forecasts for consumption and nonresidential fixed investment [13] - Future Rate Expectations: The Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep the target funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50% until March 2026, followed by a series of cuts [16] Additional Important Insights - Recession Probabilities: The probability of the US economy entering a recession is highlighted, with various scenarios presented for potential recession timing [41][45] - Dissenting Opinions: Expected dissents from Fed Governors Waller and Bowman regarding the need for a rate cut of 25 basis points at the next meeting [10] - Policy Positioning: Chair Powell is expected to emphasize the evolving nature of trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies and their uncertain effects on the economy [12] - Employment Growth Forecast: Employment growth is projected to slow significantly, from 130,000 jobs per month in the first half of 2025 to around 50,000 in 2026 [15] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.