中国股市策略 - 2025 年第二季度业绩预披露：MSCI 中国指数和 A 股持续改善-China Equity Strategy-2Q25 Pre-announcements Continued Improvement for MSCI China and A-shares

Summary of 2Q25 Pre-announcements for MSCI China and A-shares Industry Overview - The report focuses on the performance of the A-share and MSCI China markets for the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25) - A total of 1,528 A-share companies (~30% by number of companies, ~25% by market cap) released pre-announcements, indicating a significant improvement from previous quarters [2][5][14] Key Findings A-share Market - The net negative alert ratio for A-shares in 2Q25 was -4.8%, similar to -4.6% in 2Q24 and significantly better than -18.8% in 4Q24 [8][17] - By market cap, the net positive alert ratio reached +4.7%, up from +2.8% in 2Q24 and -0.7% in 4Q24 [8][17] - Large-cap companies showed resilience with a net negative alert of -1.4%, while small-cap companies improved to -7.4% from -31.1% in 4Q24 [8][17] - Financial Services, Materials, and Technology Hardware sectors recorded the highest net positive alerts, while Consumer Services, Real Estate, and Software sectors had the largest net negative alerts [8][17] MSCI China Market - The MSCI China universe reported a net positive alert ratio of +6.8%, improving from +1.4% in 2Q24 and +2.2% in 4Q24 [9][30] - 69 stocks announced positive alerts compared to 31 companies with negative alerts [33] - Financials and Materials sectors had the highest net positive alerts, while Real Estate and Utilities sectors had the most net negative alerts [33][34] Earnings Estimates Revisions - As of July 18, 2025, 240 MSCI China constituents (~47% by number of companies) had earnings estimates revised by more than 1% [2][36] - A net 11% of MSCI China constituents saw 2025 consensus earnings estimates revised downward [13][37] - By index weight, a net 0% of MSCI China saw 2025 consensus earnings estimates raised during the assessment period [37] Stock Recommendations - Based on the analysis, nine stocks were identified as favorable investments, while six stocks were deemed to face challenges going into the 2Q25 results season [12][59] - The positively screened stocks include companies from sectors such as Materials, Pharmaceuticals, and Automotive, with specific tickers and price targets provided [59] Additional Insights - The report highlights the uneven recovery across different market capitalizations, with large-cap companies performing better than mid and small-cap companies [17] - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious optimism for the upcoming earnings season, with a focus on sectors that have shown resilience and potential for growth [47][51] This summary encapsulates the key points from the 2Q25 pre-announcements for MSCI China and A-shares, providing insights into market performance, sector dynamics, and stock recommendations.