策略对话建材：建材反内卷行情展望

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Building Materials Industry Industry Overview - The building materials industry is currently facing a situation where it aims to achieve a "de-involution" goal through limiting capital expenditures, reducing production capacity, and constraining output, similar to the supply-side reforms from 2015 to 2017, but the current efforts are not as strong as the previous round [1][2][4] - The cement industry experienced significant price increases due to supply-side reforms starting in 2016, driven by environmental production limits, but these constraints weakened after 2018, leading to enhanced industry resilience through improved corporate collaboration [1][7][8] Core Insights and Arguments - For the market to sustain or experience a second wave of growth, clear policy support for de-involution is necessary, alongside a favorable outlook for demand-driven industries, strict environmental regulations, and increased industry concentration [1][5][6] - The current institutional holding ratio and market expectations in the building materials sector are at low levels, meaning any positive changes could lead to significant stock price reactions, as evidenced by the recent performance of Conch Cement [1][10] - Recommended sectors for investment include photovoltaic glass and cement, with photovoltaic glass benefiting from de-involution and price recovery expectations, while the cement sector is noted for its solid self-discipline and collaborative effects [1][11] Important but Overlooked Content - The building materials industry has not yet implemented significant de-involution policies, but potential future measures may include limiting capital expenditures, reducing production capacity, and output constraints [2][4] - Historical experiences from the 2015-2017 supply-side reforms indicate that while the current situation may not match the previous level of demand or constraint, there are lessons to be learned regarding market expectations and policy impacts [3][4][9] - The current supply-demand situation in the building materials industry has not shown significant changes, with institutional holdings at historical lows, suggesting that even minor positive developments could lead to drastic stock price movements [10][13] Investment Strategy - The overall investment strategy in the building materials sector is to prioritize photovoltaic glass, followed by the cement sector, focusing on companies with cost advantages and potential for profit improvement, such as Qibin Group and Taipai Group [11][12][13] - The strategy emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with solid fundamentals and the ability to respond quickly to policy changes, which could lead to significant returns [12][14]