策略对话交运：交运反内卷行情展望

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Aviation Industry: The aviation sector has experienced significant losses since 2020, totaling nearly 500 billion. This has led to a drastic decline in supply, with the compound annual growth rate dropping from 12% to less than 3% [1][4]. - Express Delivery Industry: The express delivery sector has seen an escalation in price wars since 2024, with both single ticket prices and profitability entering a downward trend [3][8]. Key Insights and Arguments Aviation Industry - Price Dynamics: Airline ticket prices are increasingly reflecting supply and demand realities rather than expectations. As of May 2024, ticket prices have shown signs of recovery, primarily driven by supply-demand relationships [1][2]. - Demand Recovery: Although demand has rebounded quickly, business travel remains weak, with a 10% month-on-month decline in June due to factors like the alcohol ban [1][4]. - Profitability Outlook: The aviation sector is expected to return to profitability in 2024 after five years of significant losses. Current expectations for profitability are low, indicating limited risk in buying airline stocks with a high probability of upside [1][5][6]. - Recommended Stocks: High-elasticity airline stocks are recommended, including major Hong Kong carriers (Air China, China Eastern, China Southern) and A-share companies (HNA, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines) [1][5]. Express Delivery Industry - Regulatory Environment: The National Postal Administration has initiated anti-involution measures, with expectations for specific details to be implemented soon. Key production areas like Yiwu and Guangdong are already taking steps to stabilize prices [1][7]. - Market Dynamics: The express delivery market is currently facing intense competition, with a significant impact on franchise operations. The first quarter of 2024 showed mixed results, and the second quarter is expected to see a decline across the board [3][8]. - Recommended Companies: Leading express delivery companies such as YTO and ZTO are recommended due to their ability to regain market share amid price wars. Companies like Jitu and Shentong are also highlighted for their potential to improve governance and performance [3][10]. Additional Important Points - Historical Context: The aviation industry has never faced large-scale supply issues before, with the current situation being unprecedented. The historical context suggests that supply-side reforms can lead to improved stock performance [4]. - Previous Anti-Involution Success: The express delivery sector previously experienced a successful anti-involution campaign in 2021, which stabilized prices and improved profitability. The current environment shows similarities, but the competitive landscape has shifted [9][10]. - Future Projections: The express delivery sector may see a repeat of past recovery patterns if regulatory measures are effectively implemented and if companies can enhance their core capabilities [9][10].