看好反内卷背景下生猪、牧业大周期

Summary of Conference Call on Swine and Livestock Industry Industry Overview - The swine industry is experiencing intensified competition, leading to increased trial and error costs for companies, resulting in some reducing production or exiting the market [1][2] - The overall market is characterized by a "short bull, long bear" cycle, with the agricultural sector underperforming in the secondary market [1][2] Key Insights and Arguments - Pork price fluctuations significantly impact the Consumer Price Index (CPI), despite pork's low share (1.2%-1.5%) in CPI, due to its strong cyclicality and amplification effects [1][3] - In the first half of 2025, pork prices are expected to decline by 20% quarter-on-quarter, with potential further decreases in the second half if no policy interventions occur, affecting CPI negatively [1][4] - Approximately one-third of breeding entities are currently operating at a loss [1][4] Policy Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is leading a multi-ministerial effort to balance swine supply and demand, aiming to reduce the number of breeding sows to 39.5 million to reverse the cycle and increase prices [1][5] - Initial policy execution has been weak, with some leading companies expanding against the trend, prompting regulatory bodies to strengthen credit policies to maintain a price floor of 14 yuan/kg [1][6] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Muyuan Foods: Noted for its significant cost advantage and potential for profit release, with projections of achieving over 30 billion yuan in profits if costs drop to 11 yuan/kg by 2026 [1][8] - Bangji and Dekang: Innovative companies focusing on empowering farmers and achieving efficient expansion through light-asset models [1][8] Livestock Industry Trends - The beef industry is currently in a deep loss phase, but with reduced imports due to anti-dumping investigations, a capacity clearance is expected [3][10] - The beef cycle is similar to the swine cycle, with low production rates and slow recovery in capacity expected [3][10] Future Prospects for Dairy and Beef Companies - Companies like Yuran and Shengmu are expected to benefit from the cyclical recovery in both beef and dairy markets, with stable operations and prices above industry averages [3][11] - Profit projections for Yuran are estimated at 2.8 to 4 billion yuan by 2026, while Shengmu is expected to reach 600 million to 1 billion yuan [3][13] Overall Investment Strategy - The livestock sector, including swine, beef, and dairy, presents significant investment potential. Companies like Yuran and Shengmu are recommended for their dual-benefit logic and stable operational status [3][14] - Continuous monitoring of policy changes and anti-dumping investigations is advised to adjust investment strategies accordingly [3][14]