煤炭板块如何受益“反内卷”？

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call on Coal Industry Industry Overview - The coal sector is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, which is seen as a supplement to the unfulfilled inflation logic, boosting demand expectations through stable growth plans and large infrastructure projects [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The anti-involution policy aims to alleviate the downward pressure on prices by opening up upstream capacity, intensifying competition in the midstream, and facilitating profit transfer from mid to downstream sectors [1][6]. - The coal industry is positioned to benefit from supply constraints, allowing it to share in the profit growth of the midstream industry [1][7]. - The 108 document further tightens coal supply, reinforcing constraints and enabling the coal sector to enjoy profit transfers from midstream anti-involution effects, with coking coal prices showing a significant rebound [8][9]. - A trend of price recovery in the coal sector is anticipated post-2026, driven by the completion of domestic supply, resource depletion risks, and inventory cycle digestion [10][12]. Price and Demand Forecasts - Current coal prices are at a support range of 570-610 RMB/ton, with expectations that prices have bottomed out [11][12]. - The likelihood of a significant price increase in the coal sector by the end of 2025 is low, but a rebound in thermal power demand post-2026 could drive coal demand and prices upward [13][14]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Coking coal: Lu'an Huanneng, Pingmei Shenma, and Shenhua Energy - Thermal coal: Jinkong Coal and Shaanxi Coal - Long-term dividend stocks: China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, which are expected to benefit from stable earnings and long-term pricing agreements [17]. Additional Considerations - The anti-involution policy has led to a valuation recovery and increased market sentiment in the coal sector, despite coal not being one of the four main industries targeted by the policy [2]. - The impact of large infrastructure projects on the coal market remains difficult to quantify, but if policies are implemented or disproven by the end of September, it could present an investment opportunity [16]. - International market dynamics, particularly the relationship between natural gas prices and coal demand, could influence domestic coal prices, with expectations of a potential increase in international coal demand by late 2026 [15].