宏观研究关注重点_关税影响扩大、央行宽松政策、美国住房前景疲软-What's Top of Mind in Macro Research_ Greater tariff impacts, central bank easing, a weaker US housing outlook

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - Industry: Macro Research focusing on tariffs, central bank policies, and housing market outlook in the US Key Points and Arguments 1. Tariff Impacts: - The US has announced a 15% tariff on Japan and a 19% tariff on the Philippines and Indonesia, indicating a trend of increasing tariffs. The effective US tariff rate is expected to rise by a total of 17 percentage points (pp) by 2027 [1] - This increase in tariffs is estimated to boost US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices by approximately 1.7% cumulatively over the next few years, leading to revised core PCE inflation forecasts of 3.3%/2.7%/2.4% year-over-year (yoy) for December 2025/2026/2027, compared to previous forecasts of 3.4%/2.6%/2.0% [1][1] - Higher tariffs are projected to lower GDP growth by around 1pp/0.4pp/0.3pp yoy over the next three years, as a smaller trade deficit offsets the growth drag from reduced consumption and investment [1] 2. Central Bank Policies: - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain unchanged rates and limited shifts in communication, with a potential last rate cut to 1.75% in September [6] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is anticipated to cut rates in September, with two additional 25 basis point cuts later this year and next year, leading to a terminal rate of 3-3.25% [7] - The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut rates at its next meeting due to cumulative disinflation progress in the UK [8] 3. US Housing Market Outlook: - The US housing market is facing challenges with a weak spring selling season and rising mortgage rates, leading to expectations of weak residential investment growth for the remainder of the year [12] - National home prices are forecasted to rise only 0.2% this year and 0.8% next year (December-over-December) [12] 4. US Immigration Trends: - US net immigration is estimated to have declined from an annualized pace of 0.6 million in April to 0.5 million in June, stabilizing at around 0.5 million annually, down from the pre-pandemic trend of 1.0 million [12] - This slowdown in immigration is expected to lower the breakeven rate of payroll job growth needed to keep the unemployment rate stable to 70,000 per month by the end of 2025, down from an estimated 90,000 currently [12] 5. Japanese Political Landscape: - Following recent Upper House elections, the ruling coalition in Japan has lost its majority, leading to expectations of a minority government that will require cooperation with opposition parties for legislative passage [12] - The focus of opposition parties on proposals to cut consumption taxes and increase social security measures suggests an expansionary bias in fiscal policy ahead [12] Additional Important Content - The macroeconomic outlook includes a cautious view on inflation and growth forecasts, with risks skewed slightly to the upside for inflation and downside for growth through 2027 [1] - The ECB's readiness to respond to changes in the economic outlook due to trade policy developments indicates a proactive approach to monetary policy [6] - The overall sentiment reflects a complex interplay between tariff policies, central bank actions, and macroeconomic indicators that could influence investment strategies moving forward [1][6][7][12]