宏观研究关注重点_关税影响扩大、央行宽松政策、美国住房前景疲软-What's Top of Mind in Macro Research_ Greater tariff impacts, central bank easing, a weaker US housing outlook

23 July 2025 | 5:25PM EDT What's Top of Mind in Macro Research: Greater tariff impacts, central bank easing, a weaker US housing outlook This week: Transcript US: higher tariffs, greater impacts We view the recently-announced 15% tariff on Japan and 19% tariff on the Philippines and Indonesia as consistent with our expectation that tariffs are moving higher, with the US effective tariff rate likely to rise by a total 17pp by 2027. We estimate this will boost US core PCE prices by around 1.7% cumulatively ov ...