金沙中国_2025 年第二季度业绩符合预期。博彩毛收入（GGR）复苏由大众业务而非贵宾业务引领。有基础客源回归迹象。评级 “买入-Sands China (1928.HK)_ 2Q25 results inline. GGR recovery led by mass not VIP. Signs of base mass returning. Buy

Summary of Sands China 2Q25 Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Sands China (1928.HK) - Industry: Gaming and Leisure in Macau Key Financial Results - 2Q25 EBITDA: US$566 million, aligning with expectations (Bloomberg consensus: US$555-580 million) [1] - Adjusted EBITDA: US$559 million, reflecting a 3% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) increase [1] - Revenue Growth: 4% qoq, with a slight margin slippage to 31.3% from 31.6% in 1Q25 [1] - Total Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR): Increased by 7% qoq, primarily driven by mass-market gaming (+7%) and slots (+11%), while VIP rolling decreased by 20% qoq [1][18] - Non-Gaming Revenue: Improved from -8%/-1% year-over-year (yoy) in previous quarters [1] Market Dynamics - Mass Market Recovery: The recovery in GGR was led by the mass market rather than VIP, contrary to market expectations [1] - Visitor Trends: Significant increases in day-tripper and overnight visitation (+39%/+9% yoy in May) due to relaxed visa policies [1] - Base Mass Segment Performance: Base mass gaming revenue increased by 10%, while premium mass grew by 5%, reaching 93% and 106% of pre-COVID19 levels, respectively [1] Property Performance - Londoner: EBITDA increased by 34% qoq to US$205 million, exceeding 2Q19 levels by 24% [17] - Venetian Macao: Steady performance with flattish EBITDA at US$176 million, benefiting from base mass player return [17] - Parisian: Continued struggles with EBITDA down 33% qoq to US$44 million, attributed to weak positioning [17] - Overall Market Share: Sands China's GGR market share increased by 0.2 percentage points qoq to 22.8% [17] Strategic Insights - Promotional Activities: Management acknowledged the need for aggressive promotional strategies to improve yield on under-utilized facilities [1][18] - Future Targets: Short-term target to drive gaming volume closer to US$2.6-2.7 billion in EBITDA, with specific contributions from Londoner and Venetian Macao [19] - Dividend Policy: Intention to gradually increase dividends, subject to EBITDA and cash flow generation [19] Financial Projections - Revised EBITDA Estimates: FY25-27E EBITDA estimates adjusted down by 2-1% [20] - Target Price: Adjusted to HK$21.5 from HK$21.7 [20] - Valuation Metrics: Trading at 10.6x/9.2x EV/EBITDA for FY25/26E, indicating a non-demanding valuation relative to historical averages [20] Additional Insights - Visitor Quality Improvement: Increased visitation from wealthier coastal provinces, indicating a potential recovery in luxury spending [18] - Promotional Allowance: Increased promotional allowance as a percentage of GGR, indicating competitive pressures in the premium mass market [18] - Cash Position: Improved cash position by 4% qoq to US$1.5 billion, with net debt at US$5.9 billion [17] This summary encapsulates the key points from Sands China's 2Q25 conference call, highlighting financial performance, market dynamics, strategic insights, and future projections.