中国观察-中国的 “反内卷” 行动能否奏效？-China Musings-Can China’s Anti-Involution Drive Deliver

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion centers around China's anti-involution campaign and its implications for supply-side reform, highlighting the complexities and challenges compared to previous reforms from 2015-2018 [2][4][11]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Policy Signals: There is a notable increase in policy signals regarding anti-involution, with ongoing discussions among industrial regulators and self-disciplinary associations to address excessive competition [2][3]. 2. Rhetoric vs. Reforms: The current anti-involution efforts are characterized by more rhetoric than actual reforms, with a consensus that structural reforms are necessary to address local incentives and shift towards consumption [4][11]. 3. Market Signals: The end goal is to enhance the role of market signals in resource allocation, as current competition is hindered by overlooked market dynamics [10]. 4. Historical Context: The report cautions against expecting quick outcomes, drawing parallels with past reforms and noting that the current macro environment is more challenging [12][21]. 5. Deflationary Pressures: The GDP deflator has been negative for nine consecutive quarters, indicating entrenched deflation, with over 70% of PPI deflation driven by non-commodity goods [13]. 6. Capacity Management: The report discusses the need for government-guided, market-oriented mergers and acquisitions to address overcapacity, particularly in sectors like polysilicon [14]. 7. Gradualism in Policy: The outlook suggests a gradual approach to reforms rather than immediate, aggressive measures, with limited new cyclical stimulus expected [23][28]. Additional Important Content 1. Sector-Specific Actions: Recent actions include the State Council's emphasis on regulating competition in the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) industry and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plans for supply-side reform in key sectors [9]. 2. Rebalancing Needs: There is a call for significant reforms in social welfare, cadre evaluation, and fiscal systems to support household consumption and economic stability [25]. 3. Future Outlook: The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan is anticipated to provide more clarity on necessary structural reforms for sustainable anti-involution success [22]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications of China's anti-involution campaign and the necessary reforms for effective supply-side management.