稀土新时代：需求改善叠加供应收缩，国内氧化镨钕看涨

Summary of Conference Call on Rare Earth Industry Industry Overview - The rare earth industry is experiencing a tightening supply-demand situation, particularly in China, following the implementation of export controls in April 2025, which has led to a disconnection between domestic and international markets [2][4][7]. Key Points Demand Trends - High-performance neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) demand is projected to reach 63% in 2024 and increase to 68% by 2027, driven by sectors such as electric vehicles and robotics [1][2]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for China's high-performance NdFeB demand from 2020 to 2024 is approximately 25%, with an expected CAGR of around 13% from 2024 to 2027 [1][3]. Supply Dynamics - Domestic rare earth supply is influenced by several factors, including the cessation of exports from the U.S. MP Company and disruptions in imports from Myanmar, which saw an 81% year-on-year decline from January to March 2025 [4][5]. - By June 2025, imports from Myanmar rebounded to 5,600 tons, a 71% year-on-year increase [5]. Price Movements - Since mid-July 2025, the price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide has entered an upward trend, with prices increasing by 27% compared to the beginning of the year [6]. - As of July 22, 2025, the price per ton of praseodymium-neodymium oxide was reported at 478,000 yuan, reflecting a 20% increase since the start of the year [6]. Future Supply and Demand Outlook - The global supply-demand balance for praseodymium-neodymium oxide is expected to remain tight from 2025 to 2027, with domestic conditions improving as demand strengthens and supply tightens [7][9]. - The U.S. Department of Defense's agreement with MP Company, which sets a minimum purchase price of $110 per kilogram, is anticipated to raise the price ceiling for rare earths globally [10]. Investment Recommendations - It is advised to focus on upstream companies with strong resource attributes and growth potential, such as Northern Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous, as well as leading downstream magnetic material companies involved in humanoid robots and electric vehicles, like Jinli Permanent Magnet and Ningbo Yunsheng [11]. - Attention should also be given to overseas rare earth companies, including MP in the U.S. and Lynas in Australia [11]. Industry Outlook - The rare earth and magnetic material industries are expected to have a positive outlook in the coming years, with stable costs for upstream companies and rapid demand growth for downstream companies [12]. - The demand for high-performance NdFeB is projected to grow at over 13% from 2024 to 2027, supporting higher valuations for these companies [12][13]. Valuation Considerations - Valuation should consider both profit and volume, with upstream rare earth companies benefiting from price increases and downstream magnetic material companies experiencing rapid growth due to the electrification trend [13][14].