中国聚变公司成立，透视核聚变产业链&核电运营商

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The nuclear power industry is recognized as a baseload energy source, with continuous growth in installed capacity and high Return on Equity (ROE) being critical for cash flow value [1][2][15] - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Company under China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) aims to finance and construct Tokamak devices, although it does not engage in scientific research [1][4][9] Core Insights and Arguments - Despite short-term concerns regarding annual long-term electricity price fluctuations in Guangdong Province, the long-term outlook remains positive due to project increases and stable capital expenditures driving operational cash flow growth [2][15] - The current Tokamak devices are experimental and lack commercial viability, with commercialization expected around 2050 [1][6] - The value distribution of Tokamak components shows that the magnet system holds the highest value (28% for low-temperature superconductors and 50% for high-temperature superconductors), followed by the vacuum chamber (8-10%) and other auxiliary systems [1][7][12] Financial Performance and Market Dynamics - The investment value of nuclear power operators like China National Nuclear Corporation and China General Nuclear Power Group is assessed based on cash flow value, growth potential, and the critical role of nuclear power in the energy system [2][3] - The decline in electricity prices has pressured the performance of these operators, but valuations have already reflected this impact [3][20] - The anticipated increase in installed capacity and operational projects is expected to enhance free cash flow and dividend rates [15][21] Future Projections and Strategic Recommendations - The nuclear power sector is projected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with expectations of increasing profitability and ROE due to rapid project commissioning [18][19] - The need for adjustments in the current pricing mechanism is emphasized to better reflect the value of nuclear power, potentially through capacity compensation or green premiums [25][26] Key Companies and Competitive Landscape - Major players in the nuclear power sector include China General Nuclear Power Group and China National Nuclear Corporation, with their valuations currently ranging from 18 to 19 times earnings [26][27] - The market is expected to favor companies with strong operational capabilities and favorable market positions, particularly in the Hong Kong stock market [27][28] Additional Considerations - The nuclear power industry is characterized by a stable cost structure, with unit costs remaining around 0.2 yuan per kilowatt-hour, primarily influenced by depreciation and fixed costs [22] - The impact of coal price fluctuations on nuclear power profitability is limited, but market-driven price declines in certain regions have created challenges [22][23] - The overall sentiment towards the nuclear power industry remains optimistic, with expectations for continued investment and technological advancement [28]