还有哪些政策可以期待？

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the Chinese economy, government policies, and their implications for various sectors, including manufacturing, education, and infrastructure. Core Points and Arguments 1. Economic Policy Focus: Future economic policies will emphasize high-quality development, structural adjustments, and industrial upgrades rather than merely pursuing high-speed growth. The internal market and domestic demand will be crucial for economic construction [3][30]. 2. Structural Policies: The likelihood of significant growth-stabilizing policies in the second half of the year is low, with a focus on structural policies supporting high-quality development, particularly in major projects and emerging industries [2][5]. 3. Impact of Major Projects: The establishment of Yajiang Group and the construction of Yaxia Hydropower Station are seen as part of the growth stabilization logic, but their direct impact on GDP is minimal, contributing less than 0.1% despite an annual investment of 120 billion RMB [6]. 4. Global Economic Changes: The shifting global economic landscape necessitates a greater focus on domestic market development and internal circulation, with an emphasis on upgrading manufacturing and investing in human capital [7]. 5. US-China Trade Relations: There are signs of easing in US-China trade disputes, with both sides showing a need for negotiation. The end of the tariff suspension period on August 12 is a critical date to watch [8][9]. 6. Urban Renewal Plans for 2025: The 2025 urban renewal strategy will focus on improving existing infrastructure, resilience, safety, and digital governance, which will drive economic growth and industrial upgrades [12][13]. 7. Investment in Human Capital: The government is prioritizing investments in education, health, employment, and elderly care, with a significant increase in fiscal spending in these areas [14]. 8. Silver Economy Potential: The silver economy, driven by an aging population, presents significant growth opportunities across various sectors, including robotics and smart home technologies [15]. 9. Manufacturing Sector Losses: The manufacturing sector is experiencing significant losses, with loss ratios between 27% and 34% across various industries. Future strategies should focus on quality, efficiency, and innovation [18][19]. 10. Capital Market Outlook: The capital market is expected to undergo three phases: policy-driven expectations, capacity clearing, and recovery of profitability in 2026. Successful implementation of anti-involution policies will positively impact long-term economic growth [20]. 11. Consumption Market Recovery: The consumption market has rebounded to over 5% growth in the first half of the year, aided by subsidies for replacing old consumer goods. Further stimulus measures are anticipated [23]. 12. Fiscal Spending Trends: There has been a significant acceleration in the issuance of special bonds and long-term bonds, focusing on key projects and sectors such as high-end manufacturing and green energy [24]. 13. New Financial Tools: New policy financial tools are expected to be implemented in the second half of the year, targeting sectors like digital economy and green low-carbon initiatives [25]. 14. Low-altitude and Marine Economy Developments: Recent legislative changes and government meetings emphasize the development of low-altitude and marine economies, indicating a strategic focus on these emerging sectors [26]. 15. Future Economic Growth: The probability of achieving a 5% GDP growth target for the year is high, supported by effective policy implementation [29]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Key Policy Dates: Important upcoming dates include the Central Political Bureau meeting at the end of July, the end of the tariff suspension on August 12, and various other significant events that could influence economic policy and market conditions [4][11]. 2. Differences in Policy Approaches: The current anti-involution policies differ from previous supply-side structural reforms, focusing more on private enterprises and requiring self-regulation rather than administrative orders [16][17]. 3. Debt Market and Gold Outlook: Short-term fluctuations in government bond yields are expected, but a long-term bullish trend remains. Gold prices are anticipated to rise due to geopolitical factors and central bank purchases [33].