HSBC HOLDINGS(US:HSBC)2025-07-25 07:15Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the global macroeconomic environment and investment strategies across various asset classes, focusing on trends in equities, fixed income, and emerging markets [2][8][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Risk-On Environment: - The current market sentiment is risk-on due to no major escalation in trade disputes, stable global growth, and ongoing monetary easing. This environment supports equities, particularly in the US and China [2][7]. - Rationale: Large-cap stocks are benefiting from a weak USD year-to-date, conservative earnings forecasts, and improving return on equity (ROE) in China. Risks include a weak US labor market and disappointing consumption growth in China [2][7]. 2. Fiscal Risk Premium: - Preference for fiscally sound investments as structural steepening pressure persists due to large budget deficits and high public debt. Recommended trades include buying 10Y Australian government bonds (ACGBs) versus French OATs and favoring subordinated debt [2][7]. - Rationale: Australia and Spain exhibit better fiscal dynamics compared to France, which faces political uncertainty. Risks include potential fiscal austerity and lower long-end supply [2][7]. 3. Rotation Trade & Global Easing: - A rotation of funds from the US to emerging markets (EM) is ongoing, driven by a soft USD and global rate cuts. Recommended trades include overweighting EM equities and favoring Latin American currencies [2][7]. - Rationale: Low financial stress and ongoing rate cuts support this rotation. Risks include a potential return of US exceptionalism and heightened inflation [2][7]. 4. US Dollar Dynamics: - The USD is experiencing a tug-of-war, with recent resilient economic data supporting a potential rebound, while ongoing debates about Fed policy weigh on the currency [2][25]. - A sideways USD could benefit risk assets, especially in light of the ongoing easing cycle [2][26]. 5. Emerging Markets Outlook: - Emerging markets are expected to benefit from a weak USD and ongoing global easing, with a preference for high-yielding currencies in Latin America and CEEMEA [2][7]. - Risks include heightened risk aversion and a potential reconnection of the USD with yields [2][7]. Additional Important Insights - Financial Stress and Market Volatility: Financial stress has decreased, and market volatility has moderated following trade negotiations and geopolitical developments [9][11]. - Global Growth Momentum: Recent data indicates a recovery in global growth momentum, with the probability of a slowdown significantly reduced from 78% to around 30% [13][16]. - Fiscal-Monetary Policy Concerns: Investors are increasingly worried about fiscal challenges in various economies, leading to elevated risk premiums in the bond market [20][21]. - Investment Recommendations: - Overweight US and China equities due to attractive valuations and improving fundamentals [2][7]. - Favor BBs and subordinated debt in credit markets for uncorrelated returns [2][7]. - Buy 10Y MGS in Malaysia, anticipating strong reinvestment demand [2][7]. Conclusion The report outlines a cautiously optimistic outlook for equities, particularly in the US and China, while highlighting the importance of fiscal health in investment decisions. Emerging markets are positioned to benefit from global easing and a weak USD, although risks remain from potential economic slowdowns and geopolitical tensions.