中国工业：美国对华关税调整下的贸易流向追踪-China Industrials_ Tracking trade flows amid changing US tariffs on China (week 29)

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Industrials and Shipping - Focus: Tracking trade flows amid changing US tariffs on China, covering shipping, shipbuilding, ports, international freight flights, and land transportation [2][36] Core Insights - Container Throughput: Container throughput at key ports in China increased by 3% week-over-week (WoW) and 5% year-over-year (YoY) in week 29, indicating an acceleration in front-loading [3][6] - Port of Los Angeles: Import volume estimates indicated a flat WoW change but a significant 17% YoY growth in week 31, following a 14% YoY decrease in week 30 [9] - International Freight Flights: The number of international freight flights rose by 12% YoY last week, compared to an 11% YoY increase in week 28 [30] Shipping Rates and Trends - Freight Rates: The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 5% WoW, with transpacific rates declining by 2% and 13% for the West Coast and East Coast of the US, respectively [4][12] - Container Ship Supply: The supply of container ships in intra-Asia remained stable, with the Asia feeder ship availability index increasing by 2% WoW [4][15] Port Operations and Congestion - Port Congestion: High yard utilization continues at European ports, although overall waiting times for container ships have decreased by 22% WoW [5][24] - Average Waiting Times: Average waiting times at major North and South American ports remain around 5 days, with some ships still experiencing delays [26][31] Additional Insights - China Expressway Truck Traffic: Increased by 2% YoY last week, indicating a potential rise in domestic logistics activity [25] - Vietnam Exports: Vietnam's exports rose by 21% YoY in the second half of June, reflecting strong trade dynamics in the region [19] Risks and Considerations - Macroeconomic Risks: Investment downsizing at the macroeconomic level poses a key risk for China's industrial sector, with potential impacts on demand for industrial goods and import/export volumes [36] - Policy Changes: Cancellation of preferential policies, such as tax incentives for high-tech companies, could adversely affect earnings [36] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the China industrial and shipping sectors, along with potential risks and opportunities.