中国经济评论：预期上调、房价下滑、政治局会议-China Economic Comment_ China Weekly_ Forecast upgrade, sliding home sales, Politburo meeting

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Real Estate: The 30-city property sales in China declined by -26% YoY in the first 19 days of July, a significant drop from -8% YoY in June, with tier 1 and tier 2 cities experiencing declines of -30% and -27% respectively, while tier 3 cities remained weak at -17% YoY [2][21] - Steel Production: Steel production showed a slight improvement, declining by -4% YoY in the first 10 days of July compared to -5% YoY in June [2][20] - Port Activities: Port cargo throughput growth increased to 12% YoY in early July, although container throughput growth decreased to 3% YoY [2][12] - Auto Sales: Auto retail sales growth softened to 7% YoY in the first 13 days of July from 15% YoY in June, while wholesale growth increased to 34% YoY from 14% YoY [2][17] Economic Indicators - GDP Growth: Q2 real GDP growth remained robust at 5.2% YoY, slightly down from 5.4% YoY in Q1, supported by improving retail sales and solid export growth [3] - Deflation Pressure: The GDP deflator showed a larger decline of -1.2% YoY in Q2 compared to -0.8% YoY in Q1, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [3] - Investment and Consumption: FAI growth decelerated to 2.1% YoY, with industrial production growth slightly slowing to 6.2% YoY [3][29] Forecasts and Expectations - 2025 GDP Forecast: The GDP forecast for 2025 has been upgraded to 4.7% from a previous projection of 4%, with expectations of economic deceleration in H2, particularly in Q4 [4] - CPI and Currency Outlook: Full-year CPI is expected to decline to -0.2%, with the CNY potentially strengthening in the near term but facing risks from trade uncertainties [4] Policy and Government Actions - Urban Development: The central urban work conference emphasized urban renewal and infrastructure investment, with a focus on upgrading old urban pipelines and tunnels [5][7] - Sector Support Plans: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to unveil new action plans in 2025 to stabilize growth in ten key sectors, including steel, petrochemical, and automotive industries [7] Trade and International Relations - Trade Deals: A new trade deal with Indonesia was announced, with a tariff rate of 19% and commitments for significant purchases of US goods [8] - Technology Exports: The US government is expected to grant licenses for Nvidia to export H20 GPUs to China, indicating a potential easing of restrictions [8] Additional Insights - Market Sentiment: The upcoming July Politburo meeting is anticipated to maintain a supportive macro policy tone, but major additional stimulus measures are unlikely due to robust Q2 GDP growth [9] - Investment Risks: Key risks to the economic outlook include the progress of US-China trade talks and the ongoing property market downturn [4][9]