全球宏观展望与策略-全球利率、大宗商品、货币及新兴市场-Global Macro Outlook and Strategy presentation

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Global Macro Outlook: The call discusses the macroeconomic environment, focusing on US rates, international rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets. Key Points on US Rates - Value at Front-End: There is a continued belief in value at the front-end of the yield curve, with 1Y1Y OIS rates appearing high on a medium-term basis. The expectation is for the Fed to ease later this year [3][11][16]. - Treasury Issuance: A projection of $629 billion in net T-bill issuance for the current quarter is made, as the Treasury aims to rebuild the TGA following the passage of the OBBBA [3][29]. International Rates - Tariff Impact: The announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods has had little market reaction, with a focus on potential negotiations. The ECB is expected to keep rates on hold [4][42]. Commodities - Oil Market Dynamics: President Trump has issued a 50-day ultimatum to Russia regarding oil exports, threatening 100% secondary tariffs. This could lead to a significant supply shock in oil markets due to the scale of Russian exports and limited OPEC spare capacity [8][95]. - Copper Tariffs: The impending 50% US copper tariff could result in a 4% drag on refined copper demand growth in the US next year, although US copper demand only accounts for 6% of global demand [99][101]. Currencies - USD Outlook: A bearish outlook on the USD is maintained, with expectations of further weakness due to cyclical and structural factors. Recent data has shown mixed signals, but the overall medium-term view remains bearish [67][63]. - EUR/USD Forecast: The EUR/USD is expected to strengthen, with a target of 1.19 for Q3 and 1.22 for the next year, driven by US moderation and currency hedges rebalancing [78][80]. Emerging Markets - Investment Strategy: The recommendation is to stay underweight (UW) on EM sovereigns while maintaining a market weight (MW) stance on EM FX, local rates, and corporates. The outlook is cautious due to overvalued EM credit and overbought EM FX markets [8][5]. Additional Insights - Treasury Funding Needs: The Treasury is well-funded through FY25, but a significant funding gap is expected to emerge in FY26, necessitating coupon size increases starting in February 2026 [17][19]. - Market Reactions: The muted market reaction to tariff news indicates a focus on potential negotiations rather than immediate impacts [39][42]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current macroeconomic landscape and its implications for various sectors.