2025-07-28 01:42Summary of Conference Call on National Subsidy Policy and Home Appliance Industry Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the home appliance industry in China, particularly focusing on the impact of the national subsidy policy (国补政策) on sales and market dynamics [1][2][19]. Key Points and Arguments National Subsidy Policy Impact - The national subsidy policy has significantly stimulated the home appliance sector, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 31% in retail sales for the first half of 2025, contributing approximately 1,400 billion yuan to overall retail growth [1][20]. - The total subsidy amount for 2025 is expected to reach 3,000 billion yuan, effectively meeting market demand [1][21]. - The policy emphasizes energy efficiency standards, benefiting leading companies with high-efficiency products and robust offline channel layouts [1][3][19]. Market Performance - Air conditioning sales have shown remarkable growth, with online sales growth nearing 30% [1][22]. - Emerging categories like robotic vacuum cleaners and water purifiers are experiencing strong growth, with year-on-year increases exceeding 40% [1][25]. - Traditional appliances like range hoods and gas stoves maintain double-digit growth, while integrated stoves have seen a decline of 20-30% [22]. Company Performance - Midea and Haier have significantly increased their market shares in the air conditioning segment, with Midea's retail growth exceeding 40% and Haier achieving over 100% growth [3][23]. - Xiaomi continues to perform strongly in the refrigerator and washing machine sectors, aiming for a top-three position in the industry [3][24]. - Companies with high energy efficiency products and well-established offline channels are the primary beneficiaries of the subsidy policy [23]. Historical Context and Lessons Learned - The previous subsidy policies (2008-2012) had a notable impact on rural household penetration rates, but demand exhaustion and corporate financing issues led to increased profit volatility [1][11]. - The current policy is designed to avoid the pitfalls of the past by focusing on energy efficiency and supporting small retailers [19][25]. Future Outlook - There is a high probability that the subsidy policy will continue into 2026, with new energy efficiency upgrades and subsidies for refrigerators expected to drive product structure improvements [26]. - Leading companies are anticipated to maintain strong performance, with expected profit growth in double digits and dividend yields exceeding 4% [27]. Other Important Insights - The subsidy policy is seen as a crucial economic support measure, especially in light of ongoing macroeconomic pressures [25]. - The competitive landscape is expected to shift post-policy withdrawal, with leading companies likely to enhance their market share and profitability as smaller players exit the market [18]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the national subsidy policy's impact on the home appliance industry, highlighting market dynamics, company performances, and future expectations.