2025年化工行业“反内卷” - 瓶片、乙二醇会议

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the chemical industry, specifically polyester products, bottle-grade PET, and ethylene glycol [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - Polyester Demand and Production: Overall polyester demand is lower than in the previous two years, with a slight decrease in operating rates. Export demand increased in the first half of the year, but orders were average from late June to July, which is traditionally a low season [1][2][3]. - Bottle-Grade PET Market: The bottle-grade PET market is currently in a relative oversupply cycle, with rapid expansion since 2023, adding approximately 4 million tons of new capacity annually. Total capacity has exceeded 20 million tons [1][4][6]. - Ethylene Glycol Market: The ethylene glycol market has low overall inventory, with prices influenced by cost factors. Prices were previously around 4,600-4,800 RMB but have stabilized at 4,200-4,300 RMB due to declining coal and oil prices [2][9][20]. - Production Adjustments: Various polyester products, including long filaments, short fibers, and bottle-grade PET, are experiencing losses, leading to production cuts across the board. The average operating rate is expected to remain around 89% in July, with a potential recovery in demand in September [1][5][8][19]. Additional Important Content - High Inventory Pressure: The bottle-grade PET industry is addressing high inventory levels through concentrated production cuts to reduce supply and alleviate inventory pressure. However, the overall industry remains in an oversupply state, making it difficult to restore processing fees to previous high levels [8][19]. - Impact of Policies: The anti-involution policies in the chemical industry primarily target older petrochemical facilities, with limited impact on the supply of polyester raw materials like PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol. The policies aim to reduce supply to improve profitability across the industry [16][20]. - Future Supply and Demand Expectations: Despite strong export demand, the supply growth rate is expected to outpace demand growth, leading to continued high inventory levels. The first half of 2025 saw a total export of 3.24 million tons of bottle-grade PET, a year-on-year increase of 17.8% [6][15]. Conclusion - The chemical industry, particularly in polyester and ethylene glycol, is navigating challenges related to demand, production cuts, and inventory management. The impact of anti-involution policies and market dynamics will continue to shape the industry's landscape in the coming months [1][2][16].