反内卷行情扩散，周期买什么？

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - Express Delivery Industry: The industry is responding to internal competition through price increases and regulatory intervention. Prices in Yiwu have gradually increased from 1.0 to 1.1 RMB per package after a drop to 1.0 RMB earlier in the year. Shentong's acquisition of Danying Express aims to enhance market share and reduce costs, focusing on single-package profit elasticity [1][4][5]. - Aviation Industry: Airlines are addressing price wars under the guidance of the Civil Aviation Administration by implementing minimum price restrictions and improving OTA disturbances. The summer travel season has seen poor passenger flow, prompting airlines to form alliances to stabilize prices and capacity. Recommended stocks include Huaxia Airlines and major state-owned airlines [1][6]. - Bulk Commodities: Jiayou International has benefited from a significant rise in coking coal futures prices, increasing from 720 to over 1,200 RMB. The company is also seeing growth in its African projects, suggesting a positive outlook for its stock [1][7]. - Chemical Industry: The CCPI price index has slightly increased, with certain products experiencing price rises due to accidents and policy expectations. Investment opportunities are identified in the chemical sector due to industry recovery, liquidity easing, and policy catalysts. The negative PPI growth is expected to end, with a focus on bottom-tier chemical blue-chip stocks and elastic varieties [1][8][9]. - Pesticide and Polyester Industries: The rise in glyphosate prices and increased demand for wheat herbicides are noted. The polyester filament industry is performing well, with inventory levels decreasing, indicating a potential for future growth in companies like Yangnong Chemical and Tongkun Co. [1][12]. Key Points and Arguments - Express Delivery: The price adjustments and regulatory measures are stabilizing the market, with Shentong's acquisition expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [1][4][5]. - Aviation Response: The implementation of minimum pricing and improved booking systems aims to mitigate the impact of OTA price wars, with a focus on maintaining operational stability during low demand periods [1][6]. - Bulk Commodities Performance: Jiayou International's stock is recommended due to its strong performance linked to rising coal prices and successful project expansions [1][7]. - Chemical Sector Recovery: The chemical industry is poised for recovery with expected PPI improvements and favorable policy changes, making it an attractive investment area [1][9]. - Pesticide and Polyester Demand: The increasing prices and demand in the pesticide sector, along with the strong performance in polyester production, highlight potential investment opportunities in these industries [1][12]. Additional Insights - Coal Industry: The coal sector has seen significant policy support, leading to an 8% increase in stock prices. The focus on supply-side reforms aims to balance the market through capacity control and monitoring [2][18][19]. - Challenges and Opportunities in Coal: The coal industry faces challenges in policy implementation but has opportunities for quicker supply-demand balance due to ongoing reforms and seasonal factors [21][23]. - Future Outlook for Coal Market: The long-term outlook for the coal market remains optimistic, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics driven by regulatory measures and seasonal demand [23]. - Investment Selection: Recommendations include focusing on bottom-tier chemical blue-chip stocks and high-elasticity varieties in the chemical sector, as well as monitoring developments in the pesticide and polyester industries for potential growth [10][11].